LONDON MARKET EARLY CALL: FTSE 100 called higher as eyes turn to BoE

(Alliance News) - London's FTSE 100 is set to eat into some of last week's loss, while the pound ...

Alliance News 17 June, 2024 | 5:39AM
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(Alliance News) - London's FTSE 100 is set to eat into some of last week's loss, while the pound was largely unmoved as focus remains on the UK general election campaign, and an upcoming Bank of England decision.

IG says futures indicate the FTSE 100 to open 35.4 points higher, 0.4%, 8,182.26 on Monday. The index of London large-caps closed down 16.81 points, 0.2%, at 8,146.86 on Friday, losing 1.2% over the course of the week.

In New York on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2%, the S&P 500 ended marginally lower, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1%.

In Asia on Monday, shares were mixed. The Shanghai Composite was down 0.5% in afternoon dealings, though the Hang Seng in Hong Kong was up 0.2%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 was down a hefty 2.2%, and over in Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 was 0.1% lower.

Hot-on-the-heels of the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England announce rate decisions on Tuesday and Thursday.

The pound was quoted at USD1.2681 early Monday in London, largely unmoved from USD1.2683 at the time of the European equities close Friday. The euro edged up slightly to USD1.0703 from USD1.0698, while against the yen, the dollar rose to JPY157.44 from JPY157.36.

"Under other circumstances, the softer than expected US inflation readings and the subsequent sharp drop in US interest rates would have weighed on the US dollar. Instead, the greenback managed to do well, especially against the euro, sterling, and Japanese yen," Bannockburn Global Forex analyst Marc Chandler commented.

"The political issues will linger in the week ahead, while the economic highlights include the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England meetings. Neither central bank has prepared the market for a rate cut. A hawkish hold is more likely from the RBA, where the central bank indicated there was a discussion about rate hikes at recent meetings. The swap market has discounted about a 50% chance of a cut this year. The Bank of England is closer to delivering its first cut. There is a nearly a 50% chance of a cut in August and around an 85% chance by the end of September. Indeed, the market is pricing in almost an 80% chance that two cuts will be delivered in H2."

UK Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said she will seek closer trade ties with the EU and more foreign investment as she kicks off an economy-focused week, while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is returning to the campaign trail after a few days' hiatus.

Labour's shadow chancellor has suggested she could revise parts of Boris Johnson's 2020 Brexit deal, including seeking closer alignment with EU rules in the chemicals and veterinary sectors, better touring rights for UK artists, and greater mutual recognition of qualifications for financial services workers.

She said this was not an "exclusive" list, telling the Financial Times: "We would look to improve our trading relationship with Europe.

"I don't think anyone voted leave because they were not happy that chemicals regulations were the same across Europe."

Her remarks appear to suggest that Labour would go further than previously thought in pushing for improved trade terms with the bloc, having so far been hesitant to discuss Brexit during the general election campaign.

Meanwhile, Sunak is heading to East Yorkshire, the East Midlands and East of England on Monday after a pause in campaigning for his prime ministerial duties.

He attended the G7 summit in Italy on Thursday and Friday, followed on Saturday by Trooping the Colour and a major international summit on Ukraine in Switzerland.

Opinion polls continue to show his party crashing to defeat, with one survey published during his absence showing Reform UK edging ahead of the Conservatives for the first time.

Brent oil was quoted at USD82.30 a barrel early Monday, falling from USD82.51 late Friday. Gold was quoted at USD2,321.74 an ounce, down from USD2,327.27.

The UK corporate diary has full-year results from Monks Investment Trust.

By Eric Cunha, Alliance News news editor

Comments and questions to newsroom@alliancenews.com

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