Key Global Data this Week

ECONOMIC ROUND-UP: Eurozone bond yields and US employment data were among this week's main economic news

Lee Davidson 29 June, 2012 | 7:08PM
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Spanish and Italian Yields Soar, EU Leaders to Discuss Potential Remedies
Spanish and Italian bond yields continued to rise this week, with Spain's borrowing costs nearing unsustainable levels. This week, Spanish 10-year bond yields, which are inversely related to bond prices, rose above the 7% level once again. The rise of Spanish yields has accelerated following Spain's request for 100bn EUR worth of aid from the Eurozone.

Meanwhile, Italian bond yields have also surged following this week's auction. At the auction, Italy sold 5.4 bn EUR of 5 and 10 year bonds with yields reaching 5.84% and 6.19%, respectively, up from respective levels of 5.66% and 6.03% at a comparable auction in May. Collectively, the rise in Italian and Spanish bond yields supports the assertion by Mario Monti, Prime Minister of Italy, that Spain, Italy, and other peripheral nations should be given access to eurozone bail-out funds in order to buy up peripheral sovereign debt and drive yields down to sustainable levels. At this week's EU summit, eurozone officials are expected to discuss this proposal as well as others in an effort to arrive at a more comprehensive and actionable solution.

US Jobless Claims Decline, Economy Expands
Data released this week from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that initial jobless claims declined to 386,000 following last week’s upward revision. The figure came in slightly above economists’ expectations for a decrease in jobless claims to a level of 385,000. To adjust for inter-week volatility, most economists look at the trend in jobless claims by using a 4-week moving average. Following this week's data release, the 4-week moving average of jobless claims declined 750 positions to 387,500--the highest mark in the past six months. Sustained jobless claims reports below 400,000 tend to indicate employment growth.

In the first quarter 2012, the US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 1.9% in line with most economists' forecasts. Despite slowing employment growth, US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure increased by 2.3% quarter-over-quarter, beating expectations for an increase of 2.1%. Considering that consumption accounts for roughly 2/3 of US GDP, the upward surprise in US consumption growth was a welcome sign especially in light of faltering employment growth. 

 

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Lee Davidson

Lee Davidson  is Head of Manager and Quantitative Research.

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