Question:
As a 68-year-old new retiree, I have about half of my portfolio in bond funds. But frankly, I'm questioning the wisdom of such a large fixed-income position given the prospect of higher interest rates. What should I do?
Answer:
Your question is a timely one. Investors, especially those in or nearing retirement, are rightly concerned about how the so-called safe portions of their portfolios are likely to behave in a sustained period of rising interest rates.
It's definitely smart to think about what risks might lurk in your portfolio, particularly in segments that you expect to be drawing upon for living expenses within the next several years. And it's also true that after a few decades' worth of declining interest rates, rates have much more room to go up than they do to go down further. That could spell trouble for bond prices if rates head up and continue to spike.
At the same time, I don't think it's a good idea to dump bonds altogether. As I noted in this article, current bond prices are already factoring in the possibility that rates could go higher in the future; it's not as though the threat of rising rates is a new concept that no bond-market participants have considered.
Moreover, shunning bonds carries risks of its own. With cash yields as low as they are currently (0.10% money market yield, anyone?), prematurely downplaying bonds in favor of cash carries an opportunity cost. And dividend-paying stocks, while perhaps a reasonable home for a portion of your portfolio that you might otherwise dedicate to bonds, have a much higher volatility profile than do bonds. A worst-case scenario for stocks will equal much higher losses than you're apt to see in an Armageddon-type scenario in the bond market.
It also helps to keep bond worries in perspective. Yes, rising rates tend to depress the prices of already-existing bonds on the market. But if you own individual bonds, you can simply hold them to maturity and reinvest the proceeds into bonds with higher yields attached to them. (Just make sure that you're adequately diversified and that you're not sinking too large a share of your portfolio into bonds with sketchy credit qualities.) And if you own a bond fund, you may see your principal value decline, but those losses will be at least partially offset by the fact that the manager can swap into higher-yielding bonds as he or she goes along.
The original, extended version of this article, titled “How Sensitive is Your Portfolio to Interest Rates?”, was published December 2010.