Reducing Our Fair Value Estimate for BAE Systems

We believe recent contract losses combined with customers' reduced spending ability will lead to declining sales for the near term

Neal Dihora, CFA 5 January, 2012 | 4:26PM
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BAE Systems' (BA.) defence portfolio contains a mixed bag of products with varying levels of competitive advantage. Although the firm's leading position in the U.K. and exposure to growing programmes like the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter portend value creation, a slowing U.S. defence budget and intense competition in international markets dilute some of BAE's advantages. We contend that BAE enjoys a narrow economic moat.

We are reducing our fair value estimate as we transition coverage to a new analyst. We believe recent contract losses in Land and Armaments combined with reduced spending ability from customers that are slashing budgets will lead to declining sales for the near term. We believe average revenue decline will be near 3% over the next five years. However, management correctly predicted the current scenario and cut expenses in order to maintain and even expand operating margin.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
BAE Systems PLC1,244.00 GBX0.12Rating

About Author

Neal Dihora, CFA  Neal Dihora is an equity analyst for Morningstar.

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