What to Expect from the Week Ahead

The eurozone debt situation and and U.K. bank regulation, inflation figures and retail data promise to dominate play this week

Morningstar.co.uk Editors 9 September, 2011 | 6:10PM
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A combination of financial regulation developments, upcoming eurozone debt decisions and key inflation and trade statistics from China and the developed economies will be keeping investors busy in the second full week of September.

Markets will wake up on Monday to the outcome of the G7 finance ministers meeting in Marseille this Friday. Having started midafternoon on Friday, the meeting is most likely going to be dominated by eurozone debt talk and economic recovery worries. A number of parties, including host country France and the new IMF chief Christine Lagarde, have called for a need for the developed economies to commit to boosting growth. In the run up to the meeting there has been speculation that a form of coordinated monetary easing might come as a result of the meeting, though political pressure in the eurozone and the U.S., as well as the United State’s newly-announced $447 billion jobs package, might make such a decision difficult to negotiate.

Closer to home, the U.K. Independent Commission on Banking is due to release its final report on the British banking system on Monday. The recommendation to ring-fence large banks has been one widely commented on proposal, and one that is endorsed by the Chancellor. The fine print and the implementation schedule for the changes are likely to attract attention, as investors evaluate how the need to isolate core retail from riskier bank businesses will impact the already troubled U.K. banking sector, particularly Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Barclays (BARC)

Also on Monday, China will kick off the week in macroeconomic announcements with its August trade data and the signs of global demand for exports, which it typically points to. Other highlights on economic calendars include August’s inflation data from the U.K., the eurozone and the U.S. on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday as well as last month’s American and British retail sales on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Meanwhile, industrial production data for July from the eurozone and for August from the U.S. is scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday.

Expectations for the U.K. retail sales figures are gloomy, following weak retail surveys recently released by both the British Retail Consortium and the Confederation of British Industry. “The likelihood is that consumers will be very cautious in their spending over the coming months, which will limit overall growth prospects appreciably given that consumer spending accounts for some 65% of GDP,” says Howard Archer, European economist with IHS Global Insights.

In synchrony with the U.K. retail figures, blue chip retailers Next (NXT) and Kingfisher (KGF) will provide the markets with interim figures on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. These announcements aside, next week will be relatively light on corporate news.

Monday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
Associated British Foods (ABF) trading announcement
International Economic Announcements
China: Trade Balance for August
Japan: CGPI for August, Tertiary Industry Index for July

Tuesday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
Ashmore Group (ASHM) preliminaries, IG Group Holdings (IGG)
U.K. Economic Announcements
RICS House Price Balance for August, DCLG House Prices for July, Trade Balance for July, CPI for August
International Economic Announcements
U.S.: NFIB Small Business Optimism for August, Monthly Budget Statement

Wednesday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
Barratt Developments (BDEV) preliminaries, Next (NXT) interims
Ex-Divided Date
FTSE 100:Antofagasta (ANTO), Land Securities Group (LAND), Xstrata (XTA)
FTSE 250: Berendsen (BRSN), Betfair Group (BET), Computacenter (CCC), Cookson Group (CKSN), International Public Partnerships (INPP), Kesa Electricals (KESA), Logica (LOG), Rathbone Brothers (RAT), Renishaw (RSW), The Restaurant Group (RTN), Savills (SVS)
U.K. Economic Announcements
Unemployment for August, ILO Unemployment rate for July
International Economic Announcements
Eurozone: Industrial Production for July
U.S.: PPI for August, Retail Sales for August, Business Inventories for July

Thursday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
Dunelm Group (DNLM) preliminaries, Kier Group (KIE) preliminaries, Kingfisher (KGF) preliminaries, Kesa Electricals trading update
U.K. Economic Announcements
Retail Sales for August
International Economic Announcements
Eurozone: CPI for August, 2Q Employment
U.S.: CPI for August, Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September, Industrial Production for August, Philadelphia Fed Survey for September

Friday
International Economic Announcements
Eurozone: Balance of Trade for July, 2Q Labour Costs
U.S.: University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence for September

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