What to Expect from the Week Ahead

Next week, US employment data and UK Purchasing Managers Indices will attract investor attention against a background of ongoing eurozone debt woes

Morningstar.co.uk Editors 27 May, 2011 | 6:43PM
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With both Britain and the US on holiday this Monday, the four-day working week will likely be largely driven by economic data releases, including the US labour market reports on Wednesday and Friday.

As per usual, the ADP Employment Change for May will be released first, mid-week, followed by the US Government’s Change in Non-Farm Payroll figure at the end of the week. Last month, the latter figure surprised on the upside and markets on both sides of the Atlantic responded with a cheer. At the time, Morningstar’s Director of Economic Research Bob Johnson predicted that the tailwinds in April’s employment data will carry on in the months ahead. He recently forecast growth of 200 to 250 jobs for May. Johnson also expects US economic growth to accelerate to 3.5%-4.0% in the second half of 2011, regardless of the fact that the first-quarter GDP number was not revised upwards as many had anticipated.

Closer to home, investors will be taking clues as to the state of the EU economies from the second batch of Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI) for May, as well as eurozone unemployment and Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures.

In both the UK and the eurozone, this month’s PMI Manufacturing Survey will be released on Wednesday and the PMI Service Sector Survey on Friday. Howard Archer, Chief Economist at IHS Global Insight, expects an uptick on both indicators for the UK. According to Archer, the balance of stronger global trade and high oil prices will leave the manufacturing PMI at 54.7 (up from 54.6 in April) while the services PMI will come in at 54.4 (up from 54.3 in April). Analysts at stockbroker Charles Stanley are less optimistic about the manufacturing sector, predicting a PMI of 54.0, but considerably more hopeful on services, forecasting a PMI increase to 59.2.

Meanwhile, the eurozone’s flash inflation estimate and labour market statistics for May will be available on Wednesday. And as if the mid-week list of economic announcements was not long enough, the UK’s Net Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals for April and the US ISM Manufacturing Index for May are also due on Wednesday.

On the corporate news front, there is only a handful of announcements expected from large- and mid-cap UK-listed companies. Among them, utility providers Northumbrian Water Group (NWG) and Johnson Matthey (JMAT) are reporting full-year results on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Their announcements should be of interest to utilities investors, particularly given the sector’s merits in times of economic uncertainty. Elsewhere, full-year results from Kingfisher (KGF) are due on Thursday and will provide further insight into the health of retailers and their consumers.

Outside events on the corporate and economic calendars, Europe’s unresolved debt crisis will remain in the spotlight. Jean-Claude Juncker, Prime Minister of Luxemburg and Chairman of the group of eurozone finance ministers, recently said a final assessment on new measures for Greece can be expected as early as next week. In addition, as Portugal is preparing for its general election on June 5, an IMF mission is expected in Lisbon on May 30-31 in order to supervise the implementation of the country’s EUR 78 billion bailout.

Monday
UK Spring Bank Holiday, US Memorial Day
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Construction Orders for April
Eurozone: German Retail Sales for April

Tuesday
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Household Spending for April, Jobless Rate for April, Industrial Production for April
Eurozone: French Consumer Spending for April, French Producer Prices for April, German Unemployment Rate for May, Eurozone CPI est for May, Eurozone Unemployment for April
US: Chicago Fed Purchasing Managers Survey for May, May Consumer Confidence for May, NAPM Milwaukee for May, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for May

Wednesday
UK Corporate Announcements
Intermediate Capital Group (ICP) preliminaries, Northumbrian Water Group (NWG) preliminaries
Ex-dividend Date
FTSE 100: Capital Shopping Centres Group (CSCG), Intertek Group (ITRK), Marks & Spencer Group (MKS), National Grid PLC (NG.), Vodafone Group (VOD), WPP (WPP)
FTSE 250: Booker Group (BOK), Cable & Wireless Communications (CWC), Debenhams (DEB), Great Portland Estates (GPOR), Marston's (MARS), Mothercare (MTC), Spectris (SXS), Stobart Group (STOB)
UK Economic Announcements
PMI Manufacturing Survey for May, Net Consumer Credit for April, Net Lending Secured on Dwellings for April, Mortgage Approvals for April, M4 Money Supply for April, Halifax House prices for May
International Economic Announcements
Eurozone: French 1Q ILO Unemployment Rate, Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Survey for May
US: ADP Employment Change for May, Construction Spending for April, ISM Manufacturing Survey for May

Thursday
UK Corporate Announcements
Johnson Matthey (JMAT) preliminaries, Kingfisher (KGF) trading update
UK Economic Announcements
PMI Construction Survey for May
International Economic Announcements
US: Q1 Unit Labour Costs, 1Q Non-Farm Productivity, Weekly Jobless Claims, Factory Orders for April

Friday
UK Economic Announcements
PMI Service Sector Survey for May
International Economic Announcements
Eurozone: PMI Service Sector Survey for May
US: Average Hourly Earnings for May, Change in Non-Farm Payroll for May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Survey for May

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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