British American Tobacco's (BATS) first-quarter trading update revealed steadily improving volume performance, and our thesis that pricing power remains strong in most markets appears to remain valid. We are reiterating our fair value estimates of 2,600p, as well as our long term outlook. Although we no longer think the shares are overvalued, we see little upside from current levels and recommend investors look to Imperial Tobacco (IMT) for value in the tobacco industry.
We said in our fourth-quarter earnings note that we expected British American's operating environment to improve going into 2011, and this came to fruition in the first quarter. Group internal revenue grew 5% on a constant currency basis in the first quarter, signalling strong underlying business performance. Higher prices more than offset a 2% decline in volume. The Americas and Western Europe were the weak spots, with 5% and 3% volume declines, respectively. Individual markets suffering from high unemployment or excise tax increases, such as Greece and Spain in Europe and Mexico in the Americas, drove the volume declines, but these markets aside, British American's performance was quite solid. Volume was flat in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, where the firm's growth brands Kent and Pall Mall are performing well. No profitability figures were provided in the trading update, so it is unclear how much marketing spending was required to drive the volume improvement, but it appears that our thesis that British American's balanced portfolio should allow the firm to maintain pricing power and perform relatively well in all economic environments is playing out.
Although there is light at the end of the tunnel in the consumer staples sector, road bumps to recovery remain, and with the full impact of austerity measure in markets such as the United Kingdom yet to be fully felt, there may be further pressure on volume in Europe this year. British American's balanced portfolio should allow it to capture some trading down, but we think the firm best positioned to exploit current short-term trends is Imperial Tobacco, whose stock we think still offers around 10% upside.
Philip Gorham, CFA is an Equity Analyst with Morningstar.