Although geopolitical concerns remain high on the investor radar going into next week, the potential for more stable situations in both Libya and Japan could lead to reduced market volatility in the final days of what has been a turbulent quarter.
Despite the establishment of a no-fly zone in Libya, whether the international intervention will have the desired effect of facilitating the country’s transition into a sustainable political regime remains very much up in the air. That said, global crude markets have responded favourably to the latest developments in Libya and WTI took a respite from its upward climb this week.
Similarly, Japanese equity markets have seen episodes of recovery this week. Nuclear fears, although not contained, have loosened their grip on equity markets and could potentially continue to exert less pressure in the week ahead.
With the situations in Libya and Japan relatively more stable, investors should be able to focus on the batch of macroeconomic data due next week. The final reading of the UK’s fourth-quarter GDP is expected on Tuesday, followed by retail sales and house price data on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Elsewhere, Japan is to publish its industrial production figures for February and the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan Survey of business sentiment on Wednesday and Friday. Given that both these reports precede the country’s earthquake, they are unlikely to stir market spirits.
With the beginning of April will come insights into purchasing managers’ sentiments via the PMI surveys for the manufacturing sector in the UK, France and China—hopefully there’ll be no April Fools in the figures this Friday. The EU PMI survey for the services sector is also due Friday. The data will likely be inspected for signs of market confidence in the aftermath of Japan’s disaster.
The economic data highlight at the end the week, however, is likely to be the US jobs report, due on Friday, alongside the eurozone’s unemployment report.
Meanwhile, on the London Stock Exchange, a number of companies will be issuing trading statements, including Thomas Cook (TCG) and TUI Travel (TT.) in the travel sector, and world’s largest listed hedge fund Man Group (EMG).
The mining sector will also be in the spotlight, with precious metals miners Kazakhmys (KAZ), Eurasian Natural Resources (ENRC) and Petropavlovsk (POG) all reporting results next week.
And finally, the fire under the European sovereign debt crisis is still burning. While EU decision makers gave themselves until June to finalise the shape of the Union’s lending facility, Portugal has seen the cost of its debt soar, fuelling speculation of a third eurozone bailout. This bond market theme will be closely watched next week.
Monday
UK Corporate Announcements
Thomas Cook (TCG) trading update, Lamprell (LAM) preliminaries, A G Barr (BAG) preliminaries
International Economic Announcements
US: Personal Income for March, Pending Home Sales Index for January, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for March
Tuesday
UK Corporate Announcements
Afren (AFR) preliminaries, Hochschild Mining (HOC), Kazakhmys (KAZ) preliminaries, Man Group (EMG) trading update, Nationwide Accident Repair Services (NARS) preliminaries, Wolseley (WOS) interims
UK Economic Announcements
4Q GDP, Total Business Investment and Current Account, Net Consumer Credit, Lending Secured on Dwellings and Mortgage Approvals for February
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Household Spending for February, Unemployment for February, Retail Sales for February
EU: French Consumer Spending for February, German CPI for March
US: Consumer Confidence for March
Wednesday
UK Corporate Announcements
Bellway (BWY) interims
Ex-dividend Dates
Anglo American (AAL), Beazley (BEZ), Bovis Homes Group (BVS), British Land (BLND), British Sky Broadcasting Group (BSY), Devro (DVO), Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation (ENRC), F&C Asset Management (FCAM), Prudential (PRU), The Rank Group (RNK), Smiths Group (SMIN)
UK Economic Announcements
CBI Reported Sales for March
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Industrial Production for February
EU: EC Business Climate Indicator for March
US: ADP Employment Report for March, Challenger Job-Cut Report for March
Thursday
UK Corporate Announcements
JKX Oil & Gas (JKX) preliminaries, TUI Travel (TT.) trading update, Petropavlovsk (POG) preliminaries
UK Economic Announcements
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for March, Nationwide House Prices for March
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Construction Orders for February
EU: French Producer Prices for February, German Unemployment Rate for March, EU CPI for March
US: Weekly Jobless Claims for March, Chicago PMI Survey for March, Factory Orders for February
Friday
UK Economic Announcements
PMI Manufacturing Survey for March
International Economic Announcements
Japan: 1Q Tankan Survey
China: PMI Manufacturing Survey for March
EU: March’s French PMI Manufacturing Survey, German PMI Manufacturing Survey EC PMI Service Sector Survey and EU Unemployment Rate for February
US: Employment Situation for March, ISM Manufacturing Survey and ISM Prices Paid for March