What to Expect from the Week Ahead

Investor attention is likely to remain fixed on Japan and the Middle East in the upcoming week, while the UK’s budget and latest CPI will be closely-watched events at home

Morningstar.co.uk Editors 18 March, 2011 | 6:51PM
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Given recent events in Japan and North Africa, as was the case this week, investor attention is likely to be firmly fixed further afield rather than on domestic economic and corporate data.

Amid the Nikkei 225’s 8% plunge this week, several fund managers have spoken in favour of seeking attractive valuations in the wake of Japan’s disaster. Assessment of the degree to which the market sell-off is indicative of real value loss will continue next week and bargain-hunters are likely to remain on the lookout.

Clarity on the safety of the Fukushima nuclear power reactors will be key. At the moment, opinion on how this crisis will impact global attitudes towards nuclear energy seems split and Japan’s ability to contain the danger of a radioactive meltdown remains a heavyweight topic of debate.

Elsewhere, Friday saw a declaration from the Libyan government to “halt military action” in the face of a Security Council resolution authorising the use of force in the country. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister David Cameron has said that the intentions of Colonel Gaddafi will be judged by his actions, and not by his words.

Any negative developments in the MENA region, be they in Libya or in Bahrain, have the ability to exert upward pressure on energy prices, which at this point are counterbalanced by fears of a demand slowdown from Japan. The nuclear crisis can feed into this dynamic in a variety of ways, the most pronounced of which thus far is raising the price of natural gas, which is seen as an alternative to nuclear energy. Given the magnitude of the news we have seen thus far and those potentially coming up next week, heightened volatility is much safer to forecast than an upward or a downward trend on the markets.

Economic data due next week, despite being potentially overshadowed by geopolitical and energy concerns, will shed light on the course of the global economy. Amongst announcements of note, the UK consumer price index is due on Tuesday, followed by the Bank of England’s MPC minutes George Osborne’s Budget Speech at noon on Wednesday. On Thursday, in addition to the weekly US jobless claims number, the EU Purchasing Managers’ Index is due for both the services and manufacturing industries, followed by a number of eurozone consumer confidence and business climate surveys on Friday.

On the corporate announcements front, a number of oil and gas companies are reporting full year-results including Essar Energy (ESSR) on Monday, Cairn Energy (CNE) on Tuesday and Premier Oil (PMO) on Thursday. Meanwhile, the retail space will see results from Kingfisher (KGF), Next (NXT) and Ted Baker (TED) as well as a trading update from Sainsbury (SBRY) on Wednesday.

Monday
UK Corporate Announcements
Essar Energy (ESSR) preliminaries
UK Economic Announcements
Rightmove House Prices for March
International Economic Announcements
EU: French PMI Manufacturing and Service Sector Surveys for March
US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Existing Home Sales for March

Tuesday
UK Corporate Announcements
Cairn Energy (CNE) preliminaries, Carnival (CCL) 1Q, Forth Ports (FPT) preliminaries
UK Economic Announcements
CPI for February
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Supermarket and Convenience Store Sales for February, All Industry Index for January
US: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for March, FHFA House Price Index for January

Wednesday
UK Corporate Announcements
Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation (ENRC) preliminaries, Ferrexpo (FXPO) preliminaries, Smiths Group (SMIN) interims, SOCO International (SIA) preliminaries
Ex-dividend Date
Amlin (AML), Aviva (AV.), Chemring Group (CHG), Close Brothers Group (CBG), The Go-Ahead Group (GOG), InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MLC), Schroders (SDR)
UK Economic Announcements
Bank of England MPC Minutes, Chancellor’s Budget Speech
International Economic Announcements
US: New Home Sales for February
EU: Industrial New Orders for January, Consumer Confidence for March

Thursday
UK Corporate Announcements
Kingfisher (KGF) preliminaries, Next (NXT) preliminaries, Premier Oil (PMO) preliminaries, Resolution (RSL) preliminaries, Salamander Energy (SMDR) preliminaries
UK Economic Announcements
Retail Sales for February
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Trade Balance for February
US: Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders for February
EU: French Business Confidence for March, EU and German PMI Manufacturing Survey and Service Sector Surveys

Friday
International Economic Announcements
Japan: CPI for February
EU: French 4Q GDP, German GfK Consumer Confidence and IfO Surveys for March, French Consumer Confidence Indicator for March
US: 4Q GDP, University of Michigan Cons Confidence for March

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