What to Expect from the Week Ahead

Ongoing tensions in Libya, debt auctions in peripheral Europe, manufacturing data, and UK corporate results are all due to stir investment spirits

Morningstar.co.uk Editors 25 February, 2011 | 8:06PM
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As anti-government protest provokes an increasing amount of violent retaliation from the Libyan state, the future of the Arab nation will likely be a top item on the agenda of policy makers and investors alike next week. In the past five days we have seen the Libyan turmoil translate most directly into higher oil prices and risk aversion. The possible scenarios for an outcome to this situation vary from international intervention, through to military coup, and even civil war within the Libyan territories and raise substantial concern for humanitarians and the international community as a whole. Few would expect Colonel Muammar Gaddafi to yield power like his northern neighbour did only a few weeks ago.

In addition to the situation in North Africa, European government debt markets are likely to occupy investor attention. With eurozone debt worries somewhat quailed, but not resolved, bond auctions from Belgium on Monday and Spain on Thursday will be closely watched. In addition, Portugal has scheduled a bond buy-back on Wednesday, the outcome of which may provide insight into investors’ confidence in the PIIGS.

Meanwhile, a number of interest rate decisions will be issued next week, including the European Central Bank’s monthly decision this Thursday. Decision makers from the central banks of Australia, Canada, Mexico and Brazil will also be convening next week. Since money makers expect the ECB to move interest rates after the Bank of England, Thursday’s announcement is likely to yield no change to the status quo. However, central bank watching has been gaining popularity amid the current inflationary environment and statements from Jean-Claude Trichet, in addition to Ben Bernanke’s semi-annual congressional testimony, will be closely watched.

On the data front, the highlights will be the February Purchasing Managers’ Indices for Manufacturing due Tuesday, purchasing prices in the eurozone and the February US employment situation, scheduled for release on Friday.

The week will be also be filled with corporate announcements, with UK heavyweights announcing full-year results every day of the week.

Monday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 100: HSBC (HSBA) preliminaries, Bunzl (BNZL) preliminaries, Pearson (PSON) preliminaries; FTSE 250: Avis Europe (AVE) preliminaries, Hays (HAS) interims, Law Debenture Corporation (LWDB) preliminaries, Keller Group (KLR) preliminaries, Senior (SNR) preliminaries, Ultra Electronics Holdings (ULE) preliminaries

International Economic Announcements
EU: French PPI for January, EU HICP for January
US: Chicago PMI for February, Pending Home Sales Index for December, Farm Prices for February

Tuesday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 100: Fresnillo (FRES) preliminaries, GKN (GKN) preliminaries; FTSE 250: Elementis (ELM) preliminaries, Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group (JLT) preliminaries, Meggitt (MGGT) preliminaries, Moneysupermarket.com Group (MONY) preliminaries, Persimmon (PSN) preliminaries, Provident Financial (PFG) preliminaries, Rotork (ROR) preliminaries, United Business Media (UBM) preliminaries

UK Economic Announcements
Manufacturing PMI for February

International Economic Announcements
China: PMI Manufacturing for February
JP: Unemployment Rate for January
EU: Manufacturing PMIs for February, Italian CPI for January
US: ISM Manufacturing Index for February, Construction Spending for January

Wednesday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 100 Admiral Group (ADM) preliminaries, International Power (IPR) preliminaries, Serco Group (SRP) preliminaries, Standard Chartered (STAN) preliminaries; FTSE 250: Amlin (AML) preliminaries, BBA Aviation (BBA) preliminaries, Capital & Counties Properties (CAPC) preliminaries, Carillion (CLLN) preliminaries, International Personal Finance (IPF) preliminaries, ITV (ITV) preliminaries, RPS Group (RPS) preliminaries, UNITE Group (UTG) preliminaries, United Business Media (UBM) preliminaries

Ex-Dividend Date
FTSE 100: Diageo (DGE), Rio Tinto (RIO), RSA Insurance Group (RSA); FTSE 250: Aquarius Platinum (AQP), Beazley (BEZ), Kesa Electricals (KESA), Kier Group (KIE), St James's Place (STJ)

International Economic Announcements
EU: PPI for January
US: Challenger Job-Cut Report for February

Thursday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 100: AMEC (AMEC) preliminaries, Aviva (AV.) preliminaries, IMI (IMI) preliminaries; FTSE 250: Balfour Beatty (BBY) preliminaries, Cobham (COB) preliminaries, CPPGroup (CPP) preliminaries, Howden Joinery Group (HWDN) preliminaries, Spirent Communications (SPT) preliminaries, Taylor Wimpey (TW.) preliminaries

International Economic Announcements
EU: 4Q GDP, Retail Sales for January, ECB Announcement
US: Weekly Jobless Claims, Chain Store Sales for February, Monster Employment Index for February, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for February

Friday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 100: WPP (WPP) preliminaries

International Economic Announcements
US: Employment Situation for February, US Factory Orders for January

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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