Sainsbury's (SBRY) third-quarter trading statement reflected accelerating sales growth despite the challenging consumer-spending environment, but we see headwinds that lead us to be cautious in the near term. We are leaving our fair value estimate unchanged.
Total sales for the third quarter grew 6.0% (excluding fuel), driven by like-for-like sales of 3.6% and a 2.4% increase in new square footage. For the second consecutive quarter, nonfood revenue grew at more than 3 times the rate of grocery sales, and the online and convenience (small-format) stores continued to grow. Although these are respectable results, headwinds on the horizon could cause the consumer to once again rein in impulse purchases, make fewer trips to the grocery store, and trade down to value stores. The full impact of the public-sector job cuts in the United Kingdom is yet to feed through to the unemployment figures, and the national rate of VAT (sales tax) was raised by 2.5 percentage points at the new year to 20%. In the near term, Wm Morrison (MRW) and Wal-Mart's Asda chain could be the beneficiaries of any trading down by shoppers.
With the stock trading at 15.1 times 2012 earnings and 6.3 times EV/EBITDA, we think the market has slightly overshot Sainsbury's intrinsic value. For value in European grocery stores, we recommend investors look at Delhaize, which at 10.4 times 2011 earnings and 5.1 times EV/EBITDA offers more upside, in our opinion.