Given the discord between, and even within, various global parties regarding quantitative easing, currency intervention and banking sector bailouts, the minutes of the Fed’s latest monetary policy committee meeting will be closely eyed this week on Wednesday for further details on the thoughts behind QE2 and the potential (seen as increasingly unlikely) for QE3. The spotlight will already have been firmly fixed on the US ahead of the FOMC minutes, as investors digest Tuesday’s third-quarter GDP report. Having landed at a respectable and higher-than-expected 2% in the first estimate, the US government’s latest revision is likely to be edged up a touch. Morningstar Director of Economic Analysis Bob Johnson is looking for economic growth in the region of 2.2%-2.3%. Following the GDP number and the FOMC minutes, trading is likely to fall quiet on Wall Street as the US takes Thursday off to celebrate Thanksgiving. With only a half day back at their desks before the weekend (NYSE closes at 1pm), it’s highly likely that Friday will remain lacklustre as most investors stay away for a long weekend.
Closer to home, if the debate over the propping up of Ireland’s struggling banking sector continues for much longer, equity markets could find themselves under additional pressure. Investors are hoping for an update—likely to be confirmation that the EU and IMF will make tens of billions of euros available to the Irish government to shore up its sovereign debt—before the week is out so Monday morning sentiment will rely heavily on weekend developments. Eurozone consumer confidence readings on Monday and purchasing manager index surveys for the service and manufacturing industries on Tuesday should provide insights into the progress of the European economic recovery. With US investors out to lunch towards the end of the week, volumes are likely to be low in Europe as well, and the lack of economic data from the region on Thursday and Friday could lead to a gentle finish for the final full week of November.
Monday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 250: Big Yellow Group (BYG) interims, MITIE Group (MTO) interims
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Supermarket and convenience store sales for October
Eurozone: Consumer confidence for November
US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October
Tuesday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 100: Severn Trent (SVT) interims
FTSE 250: BSS Group (BTSM) interims, Caledonia Investments (CLDN) interims, De La Rue (DLAR)interims, Homeserve (HSV) interims, Intermediate Capital Group (ICP) interims, Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) preliminaries
International Economic Announcements
Germany: GfK consumer confidence survey for December; 3Q GDP, 3Q trade balance, 3Q government spending, PMI service sector for November, PMI manufacturing sector for November
France: Business confidence indicators for November, PMI service sector for November, PMI manufacturing sector for November
US: 3Q GDP, 3Q personal consumption, existing home sales for October, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for November
Wednesday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 100: Compass Group (CPG) prelims, Johnson Matthey (JMAT) interims, United Utilities (UU.) interims
FTSE 250: The Paragon Group of Companies (PAG) preliminaries, Sportingbet (SBT) 1Q, TR Property Investment Trust (TRY) interims
Ex-dividend Date:
FTSE 100: AMEC (AMEC), Man Group (EMG), Next (NXT)
FTSE 250: Cable & Wireless Worldwide (CWC), Cranswick (CWK), Dunelm (DNLM), TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK)
UK Economic Announcements
3Q total business inventories, 3Q GDP, 3Q private consumption, 3Q government spending, 3Q exports and imports
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Department store sales for October
Eurozone: Industrial new orders for September
Germany: Ifo business climate survey for November
US: FOMC minutes, durable goods orders for October, personal income for October, weekly jobless claims, University of Michigan consumer confidence for November.
Thursday
US Markets Closed for Thanksgiving
UK Corporate Announcements:
FTSE 250: Atkins (ATK) interims, Daejan Holdings (DJAN) interims, Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT) preliminaries, Dixons Retail (DXNS) interims, Grainger (GRI) preliminaries, Helical Bar (HLCL) interims, Pennon Group (PNN) interims
UK Economic Announcements
CBI reported sales for November
International Economic Announcements
Japan: CPI for October
Friday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 250: Scottish Investment Trust (SCIN) preliminaries
International Economic Announcements
Germany: CPI for October