Rumours surfaced Wednesday that Diageo could be interested in buying the spirits business of Fortune Brands for $8 billion. Although we think the story has some merit, we are maintaining our fair value estimate because it is no more than a rumour at this point.
Activist investor Bill Ackman acquired an 11% stake in Fortune Brands in October, prompting speculation that the firm could be broken up and its individual segments sold. If this does occur, we would expect a number of suitors for the spirits business, which includes the Jim Beam and Maker's Mark whiskey brands. Such brands would fill a hole in Diageo's portfolio, which lacks a large American bourbon product. At £5 billion, or $8 billion, Fortune's wine segment would be valued at almost 14 times 2009 EBITDA, a rich multiple, in our view. Nevertheless, Diageo has the financial resources to support a deal. With £2 billion in untapped revolving credit facilities and £1.6 billion in cash, the firm would have to raise £2 billion in incremental loans, less any cash raised by the sale of Fortunes' noncore brands. This would leave its debt/total capitalisation ratio at around 0.71 times, up from 0.67 at the end of the first half of fiscal 2011, which would make it unlikely that any further debt could be raised for additional transformative acquisitions.
An acquisition of Jim Beam would appear to rule out any approach for the spirits division of LVMH, whose Hennessy cognac brand would be more appealing to Diageo, in our view. Cognac is popular in China, and the addition of a leading brand such as Hennessy would allow Diageo to gain share in this fast-growing market. While today's rumours have some merit, and assuming the deals are mutually exclusive, we would prefer Diageo to bid for Hennessy.