Could BAT's Broad Portfolio Fit All Climates?

Solid nine months for British American Tobacco, but challenges lie ahead

Philip Gorham, CFA 29 October, 2010 | 9:29AM
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British American Tobacco's (BATS) nine-month volume report confirms our thesis that a broad portfolio across a wide range of price points should allow the firm to perform relatively well in all economic conditions. We are maintaining our fair value estimate.

Excluding the effects of the acquisition of Bentoel in Indonesia, volume in the nine months to the end of September fell 3% from the same period a year ago. Excise tax increases in some key markets such as Romania, Turkey, Germany, and Pakistan have forced retail prices higher and accelerated industry volume declines. British American is likely to face further challenges in the remainder of 2010, and we think its stock is slightly overvalued at current levels. The macroeconomic environment is still soft, particularly in Europe, and the favourable impact of exchange rates is likely to diminish if current exchange rates are maintained. In addition, volume in Japan is likely to fall as wholesalers deplete inventories after the excise tax increase later this year. Nevertheless, we expect the firm to retain pricing power in most markets and offset volume declines with higher prices, and we think British American should perform in line with or better than the industry in the long term.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
British American Tobacco PLC2,969.00 GBX1.57Rating

About Author

Philip Gorham, CFA  Philip Gorham, CFA, is an associate director of equity research for Morningstar.

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