Allied Irish (ALBK) and the Irish government on Friday provided an update on the ailing bank's capital situation. The government increased its assessment of how much new equity capital the bank requires to EUR 10.4 billion, from EUR 7.4 billion previously, and said that it would fully underwrite the necessary capital raise. Allied Irish will generate about EUR 2.5 billion of new equity capital from the soon-to-be-closed sale of its Polish businesses, and expects to garner another EUR 2.5 billion from other asset sales (notably its 25% stake in the US M&T (MTB) bank). This leaves about EUR 5.4 billion that must be raised though an equity offering, which we believe will leave the government with nearly 90% of the bank's shares. We're leaving the bank unrated.
Allied Irish said that it plans to launch an equity raising in November, to be completed by the government's year-end deadline. By our calculations, EUR 10.8 billion new shares (compared to 2009 year-end's 0.9 billion sharecount) will be sold at EUR 0.50 each. The EUR 0.50 price represented a 9% discount to Wednesday's closing price, but prices have since fallen. At any rate, the announced price is no bargain, and we think nearly all of the new shares will be purchased by the government, giving it an approximately 90% stake in the company.
It was also announced that AIB's chairman and group managing director will be replaced before the end of the year. We're not surprised by the change--while both are fairly new appointments, both were insiders, and we agree with the government that some fresh blood is needed to lead AIB out of the crisis.