National Grid's Balance Better than the Books Show

We are initiating National Grid credit coverage and anticipate favourable outcomes from UK utility rate reviews

Morningstar Credit Committee 30 September, 2010 | 2:00PM
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Morningstar is initiating credit coverage of National Grid (NG.) with an issuer rating of BBB+. National Grid is an international utility that provides electricity and gas transmission and distribution in the United Kingdom and Northeastern United States. Our rating reflects the strength of National Grid's balance sheet and credit profile, which we think is one of the best in the utility sector despite the firm's aggressive five-year investment plan.

International accounting standards can mask the strength of National Grid's balance sheet and credit profile. Since UK utility regulation allows National Grid to adjust its capital base annually at the retail price index (and an additional 2% for transmission assets), we calculate its historical cost accounting-based equity position is understated by about £5 billion. Adding back this equity adjustment lowers economic leverage to 66% of total capital, not the 86% reflected on its fiscal 2010 year-end balance sheet. Its $3.2 billion share rights issue in June further improves the balance sheet. Interest coverage also is much stronger after adjusting for £1.2 billion of pension-related (noncash) cost included in accounting-based interest expense. We calculate economic EBITDA/interest coverage at 4.5 times and cash flow/interest coverage at 3.0 times for fiscal 2011. These both support a strong investment-grade credit profile, and we do not see that changing unless UK regulators cut allowed returns significantly in 2013.

National Grid is subject to favourable regulatory jurisdictions in the UK and, to a lesser extent, the US. The firm is allowed to earn a 4.4% real aftertax return on its UK-based transmission assets and a 4.3% real aftertax return on its UK-based gas distribution assets. This equates to about a 10% allowed real return on equity or a 12% nominal ROE, well above the average U.S. nominal ROE of 10.5%. National Grid's US ROEs are in line with the national average. UK rates are set on a five-year forward-looking capital budget, and US transmission rates are adjusted monthly, with average ROEs around 12%. The next UK transmission rate review was recently postponed one year, and new rates now will be effective April 2013. New UK gas rates also will be effective April 2013. These two rate reviews affect about 60% of National Grid's operating profit, and we anticipate favourable outcomes in line with current regulation. National Grid's five-year £22 billion investment plan should not change the company's solid credit standing given the favourable regulation in place, particularly in the UK.

Read Introducing Morningstar's Corporate Credit Ratings for more information on our methodology.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
National Grid PLC944.20 GBX0.49Rating
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