We have lowered our fair value estimate to 436p from 526p, the net result of several factors after reviewing Prudential's first half results in light of industry trends. Prudential's premium growth has been more rapid than we had anticipated this year, and our assumptions now lead to a 4% average annual growth rate through 2014. Our assumptions for benefits, claims, and other expenses still lead to a projection for the firm's net profit margin to average 4% through 2014 in our base scenario, but with a boost to expected profitability in 2010-11 offset by a slower (but continuing) recovery through 2014 than we had previously anticipated. We assume a 13% cost of equity. In our downside case we've factored in a 20% chance that the investment portfolio will lose some value and force the firm to raise capital, as well as modestly lower insurance profitability, diluting our fair value estimate to 103p in the downside scenario. We also recognise a 20% possibility of an increase in the value of the investment portfolio on top of our other investment return assumptions, along with somewhat better insurance profitability, increasing our fair value estimate to 833p in this upside case. Our fair value uncertainty rating remains very high. Read our full analysis of the company, published prior to this valuation adjustment, here.
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