Updating Our Prudential Analysis

We adjust our valuation assumptions reviewing Prudential's first half results in light of industry trends

Bill Bergman 27 August, 2010 | 12:52PM
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

We have lowered our fair value estimate to 436p from 526p, the net result of several factors after reviewing Prudential's first half results in light of industry trends. Prudential's premium growth has been more rapid than we had anticipated this year, and our assumptions now lead to a 4% average annual growth rate through 2014. Our assumptions for benefits, claims, and other expenses still lead to a projection for the firm's net profit margin to average 4% through 2014 in our base scenario, but with a boost to expected profitability in 2010-11 offset by a slower (but continuing) recovery through 2014 than we had previously anticipated. We assume a 13% cost of equity. In our downside case we've factored in a 20% chance that the investment portfolio will lose some value and force the firm to raise capital, as well as modestly lower insurance profitability, diluting our fair value estimate to 103p in the downside scenario. We also recognise a 20% possibility of an increase in the value of the investment portfolio on top of our other investment return assumptions, along with somewhat better insurance profitability, increasing our fair value estimate to 833p in this upside case. Our fair value uncertainty rating remains very high. Read our full analysis of the company, published prior to this valuation adjustment, here.

Morningstar Institutional Equity Research Services
Independent. Actionable. Rigorous.
Insightful investment ideas.

With nearly 100 equity and credit analysts, Morningstar is one of the largest independent sources for equity and credit research in the world. Our analysts evaluate companies using a proprietary methodology built on fundamental analysis that scrutinises a company’s sustainable competitive advantages. The strong performance of our ratings speaks for itself: The Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus Index has returned an annualised 14.94% since its inception in September 2002. This index tracks 20 stocks with a Wide Economic Moat™ Rating trading at the most significant discounts to our Fair Value Estimates.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
Prudential PLC712.50 GBX-0.35Rating

About Author

Bill Bergman  Bill Bergman is a senior stock analyst with Morningstar. He served as a research associate with William Blair for five years, as an economist and senior financial markets policy analyst for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago for 13 years, and as an economist and director of the Summer Fellowship Program for the American Institute for Economic Research.

© Copyright 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Modern Slavery Statement        Cookie Settings        Disclosures