Morningstar is initiating credit coverage of BAE Systems with an issuer rating of A-. BAE's position as the largest defence contractor in the UK gives it stellar government support and confirms its narrow moat status. BAE also benefits relative to its peers by having one of the better geographic mixes of revenue, with a little more than 50% from the US and around 30% from other international markets, in addition to the UK (almost 20%). This supports our good Business Risk rating. In addition, BAE is poised to benefit from the ramp-up of the F-35 programme. However, BAE does face significant competition across the majority of the rest of its non-UK business.
BAE has a very strong balance sheet, including virtually no net debt. It has £1.8 billion of debt maturities over the next five years, but cash and free cash flow should easily support this. The company is forecast to generate free cash flow/total debt above 50% for 2010, allowing it to rapidly pay down debt if so desired. BAE has done a nice job of reducing total debt/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation from 3.5 times in 2005 to around 1 currently. This has been done by reducing debt as well as increasing EBITDA, in part through acquisitions. This is testament to the company's strong capability to generate free cash flow. We expect leverage to remain around 1, in line with relatively flat EBITDA, as we expect continued acquisitions to offset margin degradation.
BAE faces some of the same risks as other defence contractors, such as spending cutbacks by various governments, including the US. We have modelled in margin declines to account for some of this, but cuts to specific programmes represent an additional risk. Bondholders also face the risk that the company will spend more than expected on acquisitions, which entails integration risk as well as the potential of increasing leverage.