Cigarette manufacturers Altria,
British
American Tobacco, Lorillard
and Reynolds
American will not be forced to pay billions of dollars to the US
government in a racketeering case, and our fair value estimates for the
tobacco companies remain in place.
The US Supreme Court upheld a federal judge's ruling that although the
tobacco industry illegally collaborated to conceal the dangers of
cigarettes, the government cannot extract the $280 billion it was
seeking in past profits, or the $14 billion it was seeking from the
industry to fund an antismoking campaign. The tobacco industry can now
breathe a sigh of relief after the Supreme Court's ruling, because the
potential payout could have put a material dent in their free cash flow
for many years to come. Nevertheless, the industry still faces
significant litigation risk, including lawsuits being brought to court
by individuals under the Engle progeny case. We continue to expect
tobacco firms will win some and lose some of these cases, but with the
government's racketeering case now settled, we think the companies'
solid free cash flow generation should ensure that the manufacturers can
absorb any payouts without risk to their financial viability.
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