ABB entered a bid of 325 pence per share for UK mid-cap Chloride Group on Tuesday, valuing the company at roughly £860 million. The reception from Chloride's board was far better than the response granted to Emerson's 275 pence bid in late April. Unless Emerson or another strategic firm enters a competing bid, we think this deal has a good chance of being consummated.
ABB's bid is a bit surprising to us, because the company currently does not have a notable presence in the uninterruptible power supply and critical power markets. The business will reside within ABB's discrete automation and motors segment, and may have some ability to leverage ABB's existing relationships in order to extend Chloride's market reach. ABB's current lack of presence in the space limits the opportunities for cost-cutting and other synergies with the acquired business. This leads us to question the valuation that ABB has placed on Chloride. At £860 million, ABB is paying roughly 20 times 2010 EBITDA, and 18 times 2011 EBITDA. This is a hefty premium to pay for any business, causing us to doubt whether shareholders will see a reasonable return from the transaction. Even though Emerson would prefer to avoid Chloride slipping away to ABB, thereby adding a fourth conglomerate to the critical power market, in our opinion, the economics do not support Emerson countering the bid, and pushing the valuation for Chloride.
Daniel Holland is an equity analyst with Morningstar.