Nestle's
first-quarter sales update confirmed our thesis that weak consumer
sentiment in developed markets will weigh on the firm's growth
trajectory in the medium term. We are maintaining our fair value
estimate.
Reported revenue grew by 4% year over year, or 5% after adjusting for
acquisitions and foreign currency. All segments achieved positive
growth, although emerging markets and the company's Nespresso coffee
brand were the key drivers. Sales in Asia, Oceania, and Africa grew 11%,
versus 5% growth in the Americas and Europe, as per capita consumption
continued to grow in developing markets. Sales of Nespresso, Nestle's
coffee brand that includes coffee machines, accessories, and beans, grew
20%. Nespresso is likely to be the jewel in Nestle's crown throughout
2010 as the brand's footprint grows. Although we are encouraged by the
relatively strong sales growth in the first quarter, we think Nestle
will face challenges ahead. With the sale of its stake in Alcon
to Novartis
expected to close in the second half of the year, Nestle will no longer
benefit from Alcon's fast-growing pharmaceutical sales. In addition, as
consumer demand recovers, we anticipate the prices of Nestle's key raw
materials will rise, putting pressure on margins.
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