Carnival's first-quarter results showed a continuation of the improvements in cruise demand that were noted during the firm's fourth-quarter results. Revenue and customer deposits grew 8% and 10%, respectively, compared to their depressed levels in the first quarter of 2009. Growth in customer deposits is particularly favourable considering it foretells future cruise demand.
While occupancy levels stayed relatively high during the financial crisis thanks to large pricing discounts, Carnival has now begun increasing prices without experiencing a proportionate drop in occupancy. In addition to the obvious benefits of increased demand, a recent increase in the booking window (the length of time between booking a ticket and boarding the cruise) has given management more visibility into future results, which should allow Carnival to plan costs more effectively. During the first quarter, the firm was able to decrease costs (excluding fuel) per unit of capacity by nearly 5%. However, fuel cost per unit of capacity increased 74%, causing operating margins to contract 200 basis points to 8%.
We expect Carnival to improve its cost management over the next year as demand continues to improve. We are leaving our fair value estimate unchanged. (Read our full analysis here.)
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