Kinetic Concepts announced Wednesday that a US jury ruled in its favor in a VAC patent trial against Smith & Nephew. We think this development could provide some upside potential to our cash flow assumptions for Kinetic during the next few years. Therefore, we are considering raising our $42 fair value estimate and BBB credit rating for Kinetic; we likely won't adjust our 746p fair value estimate for S&N though, given its limited reliance on this product set.
While we see some upside potential to KCI's results in the near term, any boost to our fair value estimate would likely be moderate because this development doesn't erase the long-term threats to KCI's VAC business. The worldwide negative pressure wound therapy market is expected to move from a virtual monopoly to more intense competition when KCI's key patents begin expiring in late 2012; key US patents expire in 2014. Even if an injunction is awarded against S&N in the US, which is the most positive potential further development based on this event for KCI, we think it would only provide a temporary delay to increased competition in this niche.
In its ruling, the jury said two patents related to KCI's VAC technology had been infringed by Smith & Nephew, and it even awarded KCI monetary damages based on this infringement, which so far have not been disclosed and are likely immaterial to either firm. While we'd expect S&N to appeal the decision, that process will take time. Until then, or until KCI's patents start expiring in a few years, we think the jury's findings could help KCI's competitive position in the US because this murkier intellectual property picture may discourage new competitors from entering the market.
Julie Stralow, CFA is a Morningstar equity analyst.