SABMiller's first-half fiscal 2010 results confirm our thesis that the firm's considerable exposure to emerging markets will offset flat growth in mature markets. Our 1,550p fair value estimate remains in place.
As we wrote in our mid-October note on the firm's preliminary results, volume in the Europe and North America segments were weak while Asia posted resilient results, resulting in an overall volume decline of 1% on an internal basis. However, currency had a huge impact in the first half, as SABMiller, while based in London, reports in US dollars. For example, on an underlying constant currency basis, revenue was up 3% and EBITA (earnings before interest, taxes, and amortisation) increased 11%. However, on a reported basis, including the effects of currency, revenue fell 6% and EBITA declined 2%. As we expected, part of the EBITA margin expansion resulted from the continued success of the MillerCoors joint venture. However, we were pleased to see the firm better manage costs in its Europe segment, which has been one of the hardest-hit regions for brewers, and announce further cost cuts.
Despite favourable foreign currency and commodity cost effects, management remained cautious about the second half of the year, given high unemployment and low consumer sentiment across the globe. We continue to believe that reported sales will decline by midsingle digits in fiscal 2010 and that operating margins will improve, specifically in Europe and North America.
Ann Gilpin is a Morningstar senior stock analyst.