China update weekly

A review of the main economic and corporate news and events from China last week

Dan Su, CFA 1 September, 2009 | 9:33AM
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Top news of the week
China to rein in excess capacity

After taking steps to rein in bank lending, China announced last week that it will move to tighten capital flow into industries that have too much capacity. Industries on the government's blacklist include steel, cement, glass, coal, wind power and solar equipment.

Banks will be asked not to extend loans to fund capacity expansion in such industries. Local governments, which sometimes give implicit support to local businesses despite the problem of excess capacity, are also being asked to review licenses and land use rights of businesses that have redundant capacity, deploy outdated technology and cause significant pollution.

Although the planned curb has led to some investor concerns that China may follow up with tighter monetary supply in the second half, the recent announcement actually sent a positive signal that the government is confident the economic recovery is robust enough to sustain a moderate tightening in a few sectors.

Excess capacity has been a long-running problem in China, dating back to when the country was operating under a fully-planned economic model. The government has been encouraging industry consolidation in recent years in the hope of building "national champions" that can compete on the global market, but with limited success so far.

Taking the steel industry as an example, China has hundreds of large and small steelmakers all over the country and sometimes two or three within the same province. Some businesses survive solely on local preferential policies and subsidies, leading to an inefficient allocation of resources and irrational pricing.

The weak demand environment since late 2008 has forced China to take a hard look at its industries. If the government can now show its resolve in cutting redundant capacity, growth in the near term may slow but the economy should be able to expand in a more solid and sustainable way over the longer term.

Market recap
Warnings from the Chinese premier that the economy still faces many challenges and government plans to reduce excess capacity in several industries led a stock market decline for the fourth consecutive week. Over the past five trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.9% to 2,860 and the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 4.2% to 11,450.

Macro and industry updates
China Unicom to launch iPhone

It's now official. China's number two mobile carrier China Unicom announced on Friday that it will introduce the Apple iPhone into China this fall. Although the firm refused to release further details, media reports have indicated that Unicom has signed an exclusive three-year contract with Apple to distribute iPhones. Subscribers will be able to purchase iPhones and Unicom service plans at Unicom outlets as well as several handset and electronics stores. These phones will likely carry a price tag of at least 3,000 yuan and subscribers may need to prepay another 3000 yuan for voice and data services.

Classified site Koubei, Taobao to merge

Alibaba has announced it will strip its online community and classified listing website Koubei.com from Yahoo China and inject this web property into online shopping mall Taobao. Koubei, as China's leading classified ads and community site, was merged with Yahoo China in 2008. Alibaba's move indicates management's dissatisfaction with Yahoo China's lacklustre performance. As Chinese consumers rely heavily on word-of-mouth referrals in online communities for purchasing decisions, Alibaba aims to combine the influence of Koubei and the wide reach of Taobao to better tap growth opportunities in China's booming e-commerce market.

Contributions from Iris Tan.

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About Author

Dan Su, CFA  Dan Su, CFA, is a senior stock analyst with Morningstar.

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