Carnival's results won't remain weak forever

The cruise operator yesterday reported a weak set of second-quarter results but we believe it will emerge from these trying times as the strongest in its field

Warren Miller 19 June, 2009 | 1:29PM
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Carnival's second-quarter results were in line with our expectations, and we are leaving our fair value estimate unchanged. Revenue declined 12.7% from the second quarter of 2008 because of a 15% decrease in ticket prices and an 11% decrease in onboard spending per passenger. The decline was partially offset by a 4.4% increase in passenger cruise days--evidence that the company's price-cutting strategy is at least stimulating demand.

Carnival also cut costs in the quarter; most notably its commissions fell 21% per unit of capacity, and it benefited from lower fuel costs, which fell 46% per unit of capacity. Still, these costs cuts were not enough to offset the year-over-year decline in revenue, which resulted in a 200-basis-point contraction in the operating margin to 12%.

There is still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding demand in the cruise industry. In addition to the current economic turmoil, the threat of a swine flu outbreak on cruises has deterred potential cruisers. Rising fuel prices will also show up in future results. Despite these head winds, we think Carnival will emerge from these trying times as the strongest competitor in the cruise industry.

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Warren Miller  Warren Miller is a senior quantitative analyst at Morningstar.

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