One of the primary debates at the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago last week was over big pharma. Some managers, such as David Winters of Wintergreen Fund and Rajeev Bhaman of Oppenheimer Global, worried that sluggish research and development and possible government intervention limited the potential of the industry. Others, such as Diana Strandberg of Dodge & Cox Global and Dodge & Cox International, thought several big pharma companies were undervalued due to overstated worries, and were attractive not only for their cheap prices, but also for their sturdy cash flows. Click here to read more on this debate.
At Morningstar, we think there are a handful of worthy firms available at great prices, presenting solid opportunities even in light of the industry risks. Below are just three of the companies with market caps over $150 million (£90 million) that we think are worth a look in the drug industry.
Generics are hurting Glaxo's near-term growth, but the company is laying the foundation for improved future growth with the launch of several vaccines. The firm recently launched pneumococcal vaccine Synflorix in Europe, which we believe will develop into a blockbuster. Glaxo's other recent vaccine launches that are likely to develop into blockbusters include human papillomavirus vaccine Cervarix and rotavirus vaccine Rotarix. We expect Cervarix will launch in the United States in 2010.
J&J stands alone as a leader across the major health-care industries. The company maintains a diverse revenue base, a robust research pipeline, and exceptional cash-flow generation that together create a wide economic moat. Patent losses on antipsychotic Risperdal and neuroscience drug Topamax, as well as recent side-effect concerns with anaemia drug Procrit, will weigh on near-term performance. However, we remain confident that the company's breadth can overcome these issues.
Pfizer's foundation remains solid based on strong cash flows generated from a basket of diverse drugs. The company's large size confers significant competitive advantages in developing new drugs. This unmatched heft, combined with a broad portfolio of patent-protected drugs, has helped Pfizer build a wide economic moat around its business.
Pfizer's size establishes the largest economy of scale in the pharmaceutical industry. In a business where drug development needs a lot of shots on goal to be successful, Pfizer has the financial resources and the established research power to support the development of more new drugs. We believe Pfizer will be more of a cost-reduction story versus a top-line growth company over the next several years, and the past quarter shows solid execution on cost savings.
Rachel Haig is assistant site editor for Morningstar.com.