Carnival will weather the storm

Carnival's first-quarter results were in line with our expectations...

Warren Miller 25 March, 2009 | 5:02PM
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Carnival's first-quarter results were in line with our expectations and we are leaving our fair value estimate unchanged. Revenue shrank 9.1% over the first quarter of 2008 due to an 8.1% drop in ticket pricing and an 8.8% decrease in onboard spending per passenger. Carnival's aggressive price cutting allowed the company to maintain an occupancy rate of 103.9%, a slight improvement from 2008. In addition, Carnival benefited from a 46% drop in fuel costs since the first quarter of 2008, which expanded the company's operating margin nearly 100 basis points to 10.9%. There is still a great deal of uncertainty surr

ounding demand for the cruise industry. When the economy begins to recover, we believe consumers will feel more comfortable booking cruises further in advance than they are presently. This will provide cruise companies with greater visibility into future demand, and enhance their ability to price effectively. We think Carnival is strong enough to weather this storm, and it will return to economic profitability in an economic recovery.

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Warren Miller  Warren Miller is a senior quantitative analyst at Morningstar.

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