Carnival's
first-quarter results were in line with our expectations and we are
leaving our fair value estimate unchanged. Revenue shrank 9.1% over the
first quarter of 2008 due to an 8.1% drop in ticket pricing and an 8.8%
decrease in onboard spending per passenger. Carnival's aggressive price
cutting allowed the company to maintain an occupancy rate of 103.9%, a
slight improvement from 2008. In addition, Carnival benefited from a 46%
drop in fuel costs since the first quarter of 2008, which expanded the
company's operating margin nearly 100 basis points to 10.9%. There is
still a great deal of uncertainty surr
ounding demand for the cruise
industry. When the economy begins to recover, we believe consumers will
feel more comfortable booking cruises further in advance than they are
presently. This will provide cruise companies with greater visibility
into future demand, and enhance their ability to price effectively. We
think Carnival is strong enough to weather this storm, and it will
return to economic profitability in an economic recovery.
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