Preview of Carnival's 1Q results

The cruise liner industry's largest competitor will report its quarterly numbers this Friday

Warren Miller 18 March, 2009 | 4:44PM
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We expect Carnival to report continued erosion in demand for its cruise vacations when it releases first-quarter results on Friday. General economic conditions have worsened in the last quarter, putting pressure on discretionary consumer spending. The demand decrease should be evident in the company's occupancy rate, ticket pricing, and onboard spending. Carnival's expansion effort, which will rapidly increase its capacity over the next five years, will hurt profitability in the short run, but we believe it should improve profitability once the ships are able to run at full capacity. Carnival's position as the

largest cruise line and its relatively healthy balance sheet should allow it to weather the short-term troubles and return to economic profitability in the coming recovery.

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Warren Miller  Warren Miller is a senior quantitative analyst at Morningstar.

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