We expect Carnival
to report continued erosion in demand for its cruise vacations when
it releases first-quarter results on Friday. General economic conditions
have worsened in the last quarter, putting pressure on discretionary
consumer spending. The demand decrease should be evident in the
company's occupancy rate, ticket pricing, and onboard spending.
Carnival's expansion effort, which will rapidly increase its capacity
over the next five years, will hurt profitability in the short run, but
we believe it should improve profitability once the ships are able to
run at full capacity. Carnival's position as the
largest cruise line and
its relatively healthy balance sheet should allow it to weather the
short-term troubles and return to economic profitability in the coming
recovery.
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