BHP's great expectations down, shares up

The Anglo-Australian miner rallies as earnings miss market forecasts but other numbers shine

Morningstar.co.uk Editors 4 February, 2009 | 8:25AM
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BHP Billiton, the world's biggest miner, posted first-half underlying net profit of US$6.13 billion, up about 2% from $US5.99 billion in the same period a year ago, as petroleum and iron ore volumes rose.

The figure, which excludes a number of one-off charges, was below the top end of market expectations of US$6.42 billion but stocks investors lifted BHP Billiton's share price nearly 2% in Australian trade to $30.25 in a softer overall market, with the UK-listed shares also almost 2% higher at 1,178p in opening deals in London.

A global economic slowdown has cooled demand from China, which spurred much of the company's growth. BHP Billiton said the medium term was uncertain but its strategy of investing right through the business cycle would position it for growth when the economy rebounded.

The dual-listed miner's net profit attributable to shareholders was US$2.62 billion, including a net US$2.4 billion charge for the suspension of its Ravensthorpe nickel mine as well as costs linked to its bid for Rio Tinto, which it abandoned.

Morningstar senior analyst Mark Taylor said the overall picture was positive. "I think the market would be pretty happy with this result," he said.

Taylor said BHP Billiton's adjusted earnings were about 10% below his US$6.77 billion forecast and earnings per share of US$1.10 was below his expected US$1.20. However, other numbers were better than expected.

The Anglo-Australian miner's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $US$13.94 billion topped Morningstar's forecast of US$12.40 billion. BHP Billiton's interim dividend of US41 cents was above expectations and 41 per cent higher than the company's interim payout a year ago.

Taylor said the translation of that dividend into Australian-dollar terms was noteworthy, more than doubling to 64.9 cents from 31.94 cents a year earlier. "All in all, it's a good result," he said, adding that few companies were increasing dividends in the current economic slowdown.

The company's net debt of US$4.2 billion was also lower than expected, a plus in a climate of high refinancing costs.

BHP Billiton said its costs rose by US$1.87 billion owing to higher costs of fuel and raw materials, including coke and sulphuric acid.

"A portion of the increase in costs was deliberately incurred to maximise production to take advantage of the high prices," the company said.

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