Cadbury's (link will open in a new window) first-half results showed strong top-line growth and margin expansion on an operating basis, in line with our expectations. The company offered a muted outlook for the remainder of 2008 (owing to more difficult comparisons) and 2009 (because of a tough commodity cost environment). Although higher commodity costs and weakening consumer trends in a number of markets could pressure near-term performance, Cadbury appears to be on track with its cost-reduction program, and we're sticking with our long-term forecast.
The biggest risks to Cadbury going forward are as follows: It fails to achieve significant margin improvement from its current restr
ucturing initiatives, similar to its difficulties in the past. The firm's profitability may be hurt by rising commodity costs. Further, Cadbury's worldwide footprint subjects the firm to foreign exchange rate fluctuations. One third of the firm's revenue comes from emerging markets, where volatile political and economic climates could pressure sales.
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