Our Outlook for the US Equity Market in 2007

Which sectors and companies are poised to do well or poorly in 2007 and beyond?

Haywood Kelly, CFA 12 January, 2007 | 4:15PM
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UK investors have enjoyed a spectacular “bull run" in domestic shares since 2002. US investors haven’t been as well rewarded, and many pundits are decidedly pessimistic about the outlook for US equities relative to other developed markets around the globe. Nevertheless, given that it constitutes more than 40% of the global market cap, it would be a mistake to ignore the American market. Morningstar employs a staff of close to 100 fundamental equity analysts in the US, covering more than 1,800 stocks. Here’s their outlook for 2007, complete with in-depth reviews of major market sectors on a more global basis.

Market Overview
Six months ago, the U.S. stock market looked reasonably priced when compared with Morn

ingstar's collective fair value estimates. Since then, the market has boomed. Between July 21, when the median fair value of our coverage universe bottomed, and Dec. 31 the Morningstar U.S. Market Index rose 15%. As a result, we're heading into 2007 with a fairly pessimistic view of the stock market.

In fact, the median stock is priced to return single digits over the next three to five years, in our view. As the chart below shows, if you threw a dart at our coverage list, your expected three-year return would be 8.9%, down from 10.5% four months earlier. The median stock in our coverage universe of 1,800 stocks trades at an 11% premium to our estimate of fair value. (To see more on Morningstar's perspective on market valuations, check out our Market Valuation Graph.)


Trends in Valuation
Date Average
Star Rating
Average
Price/Fair Value
Average
Expected
3 Yr. Ret.
30-08-06 2.88 1.07 10.46
30-09-06 2.84 1.07 10.31
31-10-06 2.76 1.09 9.67
30-11-06 2.67 1.12 8.76
31-12-06 2.66 1.11 8.90
Equal-weighted averages

The remarkable thing about today's valuations is how little variation we see across sectors. The table below breaks down our coverage universe by Morningstar's 12 economic sectors, and shows equal-weighted averages for Morningstar ratings for stocks (i.e., shares--the higher the rating, the better) and price/fair value ratios (the lower the better). The average star ratings cluster between 2.91 for energy and 2.46 for telecommunications. No sector has an average rating above 3.0--meaning the average stock in each sector offers an unattractive return given its risk. (Star ratings are risk-adjusted.)


Valuation Trends by Sector
Sector Average
Star Rating
Median
Price/Fair Value
Stocks
Covered
Energy 2.91 1.00 151
Consumer Services 2.85 1.00 185
Utilities 2.73 1.02 84
Consumer Goods 2.72 1.03 126
Health Care 2.68 1.03 203
Software 2.66 1.07 65
Hardware 2.63 1.04 167
Business Services 2.62 1.04 193
Media 2.58 1.09 62
Financial Services 2.57 1.05 350
Industrial Materials 2.51 1.06 231
Telecommunications 2.46 1.07 72
Data as of 31-12-06

We've emphasised repeatedly over the past year that quality, blue-chip companies, which tend to be larger, appear relatively cheap. That's still the case. When we look at valuations weighted by market capitalisation--which give greater weight to larger companies--the stock market appears more fairly valued. The S&P 500, a cap-weighted index, trades very close to our bottom-up measure of fair value. And as shown in the table below, when we weight by capitalisation, three out of our 12 sectors are currently undervalued: software, health care, and consumer services. In practice, this means we expect better returns from the stock market as a whole than from the average stock.


Valuation Trends by Sector, Market Cap Weighted
Sector Average
Star Rating
Median
Price/Fair Value
Stocks
Covered
Software 3.41 0.96 65
Health Care 3.31 0.97 203
Consumer Services 3.27 0.99 185
Consumer Goods 2.92 1.03 126
Media 2.76 1.10 62
Business Services 2.73 1.11 193
Financial Services 2.72 1.06 350
Hardware 2.70 1.08 167
Industrial Materials 2.67 1.12 231
Telecommunications 2.65 1.06 72
Energy 2.61 1.09 151
Utilities 2.56 1.08 84
Market-cap-weighted averages. Data as of 31-12-06


Major Themes: Sector by Sector
For details on what companies are poised to do well or poorly in 2007 and beyond, we compiled these thoughts from our analyst team.

Information Super Sector: Commentary on the telecommunications, hardware, software, and media sectors.

Services Super Sector: Commentary on the health-care, financial services, consumer services, and business services sectors.

Manufacturing Super Sector: Commentary on the energy, industrial materials, consumer goods, and utilities sectors.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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About Author

Haywood Kelly, CFA  Haywood Kelly, CFA, is vice president of equity research at Morningstar. He'd love to hear from you, and promises to read all your e-mail (even if he can't respond to it all).

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