UK investors have enjoyed a spectacular “bull run" in domestic shares since 2002. US investors haven’t been as well rewarded, and many pundits are decidedly pessimistic about the outlook for US equities relative to other developed markets around the globe. Nevertheless, given that it constitutes more than 40% of the global market cap, it would be a mistake to ignore the American market. Morningstar employs a staff of close to 100 fundamental equity analysts in the US, covering more than 1,800 stocks. Here’s their outlook for 2007, complete with in-depth reviews of major market sectors on a more global basis.
Market Overview
Six months ago, the U.S. stock market looked reasonably priced when compared with Morn
ingstar's collective fair value estimates. Since then, the market has boomed. Between July 21, when the median fair value of our coverage universe bottomed, and Dec. 31 the Morningstar U.S. Market Index rose 15%. As a result, we're heading into 2007 with a fairly pessimistic view of the stock market.
In fact, the median stock is priced to return single digits over the next three to five years, in our view. As the chart below shows, if you threw a dart at our coverage list, your expected three-year return would be 8.9%, down from 10.5% four months earlier. The median stock in our coverage universe of 1,800 stocks trades at an 11% premium to our estimate of fair value. (To see more on Morningstar's perspective on market valuations, check out our Market Valuation Graph.)
Date |
Average Star Rating |
Average Price/Fair Value |
Average Expected 3 Yr. Ret. |
---|---|---|---|
30-08-06 | 2.88 | 1.07 | 10.46 |
30-09-06 | 2.84 | 1.07 | 10.31 |
31-10-06 | 2.76 | 1.09 | 9.67 |
30-11-06 | 2.67 | 1.12 | 8.76 |
31-12-06 | 2.66 | 1.11 | 8.90 |
Equal-weighted averages |
The remarkable thing about today's valuations is how little variation we see across sectors. The table below breaks down our coverage universe by Morningstar's 12 economic sectors, and shows equal-weighted averages for Morningstar ratings for stocks (i.e., shares--the higher the rating, the better) and price/fair value ratios (the lower the better). The average star ratings cluster between 2.91 for energy and 2.46 for telecommunications. No sector has an average rating above 3.0--meaning the average stock in each sector offers an unattractive return given its risk. (Star ratings are risk-adjusted.)
Sector |
Average Star Rating |
Median Price/Fair Value |
Stocks Covered |
---|---|---|---|
Energy | 2.91 | 1.00 | 151 |
Consumer Services | 2.85 | 1.00 | 185 |
Utilities | 2.73 | 1.02 | 84 |
Consumer Goods | 2.72 | 1.03 | 126 |
Health Care | 2.68 | 1.03 | 203 |
Software | 2.66 | 1.07 | 65 |
Hardware | 2.63 | 1.04 | 167 |
Business Services | 2.62 | 1.04 | 193 |
Media | 2.58 | 1.09 | 62 |
Financial Services | 2.57 | 1.05 | 350 |
Industrial Materials | 2.51 | 1.06 | 231 |
Telecommunications | 2.46 | 1.07 | 72 |
Data as of 31-12-06 |
We've emphasised repeatedly over the past year that quality, blue-chip companies, which tend to be larger, appear relatively cheap. That's still the case. When we look at valuations weighted by market capitalisation--which give greater weight to larger companies--the stock market appears more fairly valued. The S&P 500, a cap-weighted index, trades very close to our bottom-up measure of fair value. And as shown in the table below, when we weight by capitalisation, three out of our 12 sectors are currently undervalued: software, health care, and consumer services. In practice, this means we expect better returns from the stock market as a whole than from the average stock.
Sector |
Average Star Rating |
Median Price/Fair Value |
Stocks Covered |
---|---|---|---|
Software | 3.41 | 0.96 | 65 |
Health Care | 3.31 | 0.97 | 203 |
Consumer Services | 3.27 | 0.99 | 185 |
Consumer Goods | 2.92 | 1.03 | 126 |
Media | 2.76 | 1.10 | 62 |
Business Services | 2.73 | 1.11 | 193 |
Financial Services | 2.72 | 1.06 | 350 |
Hardware | 2.70 | 1.08 | 167 |
Industrial Materials | 2.67 | 1.12 | 231 |
Telecommunications | 2.65 | 1.06 | 72 |
Energy | 2.61 | 1.09 | 151 |
Utilities | 2.56 | 1.08 | 84 |
Market-cap-weighted averages. Data as of 31-12-06 |
Major Themes: Sector by Sector
For details on what companies are poised to do well or poorly in 2007 and beyond, we compiled these thoughts from our analyst team.
Information Super Sector: Commentary on the telecommunications, hardware, software, and media sectors.
Services Super Sector: Commentary on the health-care, financial services, consumer services, and business services sectors.
Manufacturing Super Sector: Commentary on the energy, industrial materials, consumer goods, and utilities sectors.