Rates rises only expected in the US

Fund managers are in almost total agreement as to the direction of interest rates in America and Europe according to the latest Morningstar European Fund Trends survey.

Morningstar.co.uk Editors 29 April, 2005 | 3:17PM
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Most of the fund management groups participating in the survey said the Bank of England would hold interest rates when it meets on May 9th. Only a small minority of 11% said the central bank would raise rates by a quarter point while the rest expected no change.

Some 96% said the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next Tuesday. Meanwhile no movement was expected in euro-zone interest rates when the European Central Bank also meets next week.

Opinions were more divided when the questions dealt with longer time frames. About 60% said the 3-month euro bond rate was likely to be fairly unchanged in the next

12 months while 38% said it would be up 50-100 basis points.

Managers expected more movement with the 3-month US bond rate with 60% saying it would rise 50-100 basis points and 31% saying 100-200 basis points.

Sentiment towards global equities slipped in April. Almost two-thirds said the global stockmarket, as measured by the MSCI World Index in dollars, would return between 5-10% over the next year. While none of the groups said global returns would be negative there were far more who said returns would be 5% or less than there were those who said more than 10%.

Regional preferences

Fund managers strongly backed Europe excluding the UK as the best performing market on a relative basis over the coming 12 months. Some 44% said it would top the rest of the world, up from 30% in March. Asia and Japan tied for a distant second place with 14% each. More than two-thirds said America would be the worst performing region.

The yen gained ground this month with 33% expecting it to be the best performing currency on a relative basis compared with 27% last month. The euro retained the top position but fell to 44% from 49% in March. Over 60% said the dollar would be the worst performer.

Looking at industry trends there was a surprise move in favour of alternative fund launches this month. Some 39% saying “other” funds such as guaranteed funds and hedge funds would dominate launches in Europe over the next year. This was the first month in over two years that managers’ top choice was “other” funds.

Equity funds, which had been the top choice for a number of months, fell to 36% from 52% in March. Balanced funds received 23% while fixed income languished at the bottom with 2%.

Morningstar’s European offices conducted the survey from April 18th-25th. Some 46 fund groups from 12 countries participated. On average they each managed €59billion (£40 billion) and offered 88 retail funds.

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