Fund managers upbeat on Japan

Fund managers expect the Japanese stockmarket to rise over the coming year according to the latest Morningstar European Fund Trends survey.

Morningstar.co.uk Editors 7 June, 2004 | 6:18PM
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Some 60% said the MSCI Japan index will be 5-15% higher in a year’s time while 26% were expecting gains of 15% or more. This positive outlook was reflected in their investment allocations to Japan in a global portfolio. Some 57% had an overweight position in Japan relative to their benchmark. Only 13% had an underweight position.

Managers were generally happy with their current positions in the Japanese stockmarket. Three-quarters were planning to hold their current weightings while almost 20% were about to increase it.

The survey participants viewed the development of China as important for Japan. Some 62% said it had a lot

of importance while 36% said a little.

Recent concerns about the overheating of the Chinese economy do not appear to have worried fund managers significantly. About half said China would have no major impact on global stockmarkets over the next year while 37% said its impact would be mostly positive.

China is not another “Internet bubble” according to three-quarters of the groups surveyed. Only 25% said it was fair to compare the current launching of funds focused on China with the launching of funds focusing on the Internet in the spring of 2000.

Fund launches

Equity [share] funds were expected to dominate new fund launches over the coming year. Over half of managers chose equity funds as the frontrunner with balanced funds coming in second place with 22%. Only 5% favoured fixed income.

Overall managers were slightly more positive on the outlook for the global stockmarket than in the last survey. None said they expected negative returns but at the same time none expected more than 15% returns. Most anticipated performance ranging from 5-10% over the next year.

On a relative basis Japan was expected to be the best performing market over the next 12 months. There was a significant drop in sentiment for the rest of Asia. Only 13% said Asia excluding Japan would be the top region, down from 23% in April. That was the worst ranking for the region since the survey began in December 2001.

Europe excluding the UK tied Asia ex Japan for second place while America and Emerging Europe followed with 11% each. At the same time almost 30% of fund groups said America would be the worst performing region over the coming year with Britain in second place.

In terms of currency the euro regained some lost ground in May. Some 38% said it would be the top performer, up from 30% in April. The yen, gaining 40% of the vote, narrowly beat the euro for the top spot.

Morningstar’s European offices conducted the survey from May 18th-25th. Some 57 fund groups from 12 countries participated. On average they each managed €44 billion (£29 billion) and offered 84 retail funds.

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