The elusive upswing

Stockmarkets around Europe have grown increasingly impatient and nervous, as hopes of a decisive pick-up in the economy continue to fade into the distance.

Morningstar Europe Editor 1 August, 2002 | 5:14PM
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From July 1st-30th the MSCI EMU index fell 13.5% in local currency terms compared with a 9.1% fall in the MSCI World Free index.

Both internal and external factors contributed to this underperformance: The American consumer seems unlikely to bail out the rest of the world this time around, the rise in the euro against the dollar might hurt European exports, and Germany, the euro-zone’s largest economy, is still languishing, paralysed by an electoral campaign.

Investor sentiment

Investors in Europe are coming to the realisation that they too are not immune from corporate scandals. Accounti

ng irregularities in several countries have emerged as well as the highly publicised troubles at Vivendi.

Outlook

Even more worrisome is the fact that not only have many companies reported earnings disappointments but their outlook for the remainder of the year often remains cautious at best.

Optimists hope that the rally towards the end of the month will turn out to be the start of a new bull market. Yet there are many pessimists out there who do not think the market has reached its bottom.

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