Tokyo is this year’s winner among the main world stockmarkets. Extremely negative sentiment at the beginning of 2002 set the stage for a rebound.
A financial collapse at the end of the fiscal year on March 31st was averted and the probability of needed reforms being achieved by Junichiro Koizumi, the prime minister, appears to be increasing.
Investor sentiment
Many global asset allocators have upgraded their forecasts for Japan during the last two months. Possibly they are looking for an alternative market when most other stockmarkets have turned back down toward their September lows. Fr
om a relative performance perspective Tokyo also proved tempting to those who see American shares as overvalued.
But after 12 years of stagnation, few still believe in the long term “Japanese miracle” story. Economic growth was just over 1% in the first quarter - equivalent to 5.7% on an annualised basis. - while company profits are forecast to remain weak. Instead it is the factional conflict, between Mr Koizumi and the anti-reformers who dominate the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, that is the focus of investor anxiety.
Outlook
Even after this year’s impressive revival, the MSCI Japan index was still only up 18% in yen terms as of June 11th from its 16-year low on February 6th 2002. Optimists who believe in Mr Koizumi expect much more. With long-term sentiment still depressed there is no doubt still much potential. But beware, the decade-old economic problems of Japan have yet to be solved.
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