Key Morningstar Metrics for Disney
- Fair Value Estimate: $115.00
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
Disney DIS stock has gotten punished amid US tariff announcements and strained relations with foreign countries. Tariffs shouldn’t have much of a direct impact on Disney, but Disney would be especially sensitive to a resulting economic slowdown and chilled US tourism.
Why it matters: Disney’s experiences segment, including its theme parks, hotels, and cruises, made up nearly 60% of operating profit in 2024, and we’ve expected total profits to be similarly reliant on experiences for the next few years. This business is at risk in the current backdrop.
- We now anticipate a slower economy and believe experiences, with its reliance on its guests taking expensive vacations, will be weak over the next couple of years. We also think Disney is at risk of anti-American sentiment if Canadians travel less to the US and Asian theme parks are stigmatized.
- We have also slightly reduced our Disney media forecast through 2026 on weaker ad revenue, which is also economically cyclical.
The bottom line: We reduced our fair value estimate to $115 from $125. We believe that Disney remains undervalued, with a wide moat and good long-term prospects.
- Our forecast does not consider a severe recession, but we’re comfortable that Disney’s fundamental undervaluation allows for a substantial buffer if an economic downturn is harsh. However, we expect the stock to remain sensitive to worsening news.
- We now project 3% experiences growth in 2025, despite existing vacation bookings and new cruise ships. We project a 7% decline in experiences revenue in 2026 before returning to growth. We project the experiences operating margin to contract by nearly five percentage points from 2024 to 2026.
Key stats: In total, we now expect no revenue or operating profit growth from 2024 to 2026, with slight increases in 2025 and slight declines in 2026. We project earnings per share to be flat in 2025 and down 5% in 2026. Our fair value estimate implies a P/E multiple of 24 times our trough 2026 forecast.
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