Key Morningstar Metrics for Reddit
- Fair Value Estimate: $120
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Economic Moat: Narrow
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High
Reddit RDDT is a community-driven platform that is centered on shared interests and groups rather than personal networks. Instead of connecting primarily with friends and family like on Facebook and Instagram, users explore over 100K+ specialized communities called “subreddits”, where conversations are primarily in the form of a discussion board-like format. We believe that this community-based environment drives robust engagement as well as creates a wealth of user insights that underpin the platform’s appeal.
Reddit’s differentiated ecosystem creates value for both users and advertisers through better engagement and monetization opportunities. We forecast that a healthy mix of user growth and improved monetization should help revenues grow at a 29% compound annual growth rate for the next five years. With the stock price trading at $110 as of this writing, we view shares as fairly valued. We assign a Narrow Moat, Very High Morningstar Uncertainty, and Standard Capital Allocation Rating for the firm.
Reddit is Recruiting Engaged Users
We model DAUs to increase from 101 million in 2024 to 250 million by 2030 through targeted international expansion, product innovation, and enhanced user experience. We believe Reddit’s focus on adding innovative features, such as an immersive search, video integration, and gamified rewards, will help transform casual visitors to highly engaged daily users.
We estimate global ARPU will grow from $12.78 in 2024 to $29.65 in 2029, driven by a combination of monetization strategies. We see the company focusing capital towards developing its ad stack and better ad targeting processes to improve monetization.
We currently see Reddit’s ad inventory – the space available to show ads – as nascent and believe the company has sufficient bandwidth to grow this auction density. Lastly, Reddit’s push to move down funnel should help unlock additional advertising dollars from clients who are more focused on conversion rates rather than brand awareness.
We don’t view digital advertising as a winner-takes-all arena. In fact, we believe advertisers are continually diversifying their spending across a range of digital and traditional channels to reach a broader audience. On profitability, we estimate non-GAAP operating margins will reach 39% by 2030, up from 21% in 2024. We expect the growing user base, enhanced engagement, and optimized ad monetization will flow to the bottom line.
Reddit Stock Price
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