Stock of the Week: Why Are BP Shares Rising?

FTSE 100 oil major’s shares are up 10% year to date, helped by takeover speculation and activist pressure.

Christopher Johnson 25 March, 2025 | 8:44AM
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Key Takeaways

  • BP has ditched its renewables targets
  • Elliott has built a stake in BP
  • Shares remain undervalued
  • BP could be taken over by a larger rival

BP’s shares are experiencing a boost in recent weeks and are up around 10% already this year. This is ahead of its London-listed rival Shell.

So what is going on? Last month, Elliott Management, the US activist hedge fund, built a 5% stake in the struggling UK oil major and is driving it to return to its fossil fuel roots. This move is likely to drive strategic change at the oil major.

In recent days BP has announced it is hiring two new directors to facilitate the company’s pivot back to oil and gas.

In the view of Morningstar equity analyst Allen Good, Elliott will take stronger measures if BP’s latest decisions fail to boost its share price.

Could BP Become a Takeover Target?

There is also speculation that the company could become a takeover target, especially as it has underperformed its peers in recent years. Results have reinforced this idea, as fourth-quarter earnings released in February fell short of market expectations.

The prospect of a Shell-BP merger, an idea that comes and goes in the UK market, has also been reignited this year.

As of this recording BP is trading at 443p, below the Morningstar fair value estimate of 511p.

In terms of dividends, BP yields over 5% and is about to pay its Q4 dividend on March 28. The company has a history of raising dividends: the total 2024 payout is higher than in 2023, which in turn was higher than in 2022.


The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.

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Christopher Johnson  is data journalist at Morningstar

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