Kering KER shares plunged 10% on the stock market on Friday, March 14, following the surprise appointment of Deman Gvasalia as artistic director of Gucci, the French luxury group’s flagship brand.
Key Morningstar Metrics for Kering KER
Fair Value Estimate: €448.00
Price/Fair Value: 0.56
Morningstar Rating: ★★★★★
Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
What We Think About Kering’s Share Price Plummet
We are maintaining our fair value estimate for Kering KER following the announcement of Balenciaga’s Demna being appointed as Gucci’s artistic director.
The appointment is an unexpected move, as it breaks with Kering’s trackrecord of appointing less-high-profile creatives (for example, Alessandro Michele, appointed in 2015, was an internal candidate at Gucci while Sabato de Sarno was appointed in 2023 from Valentino, where he was not a chief creative officer). There had been market talk of high-profile candidates for this role, including Maria Grazia Chiuri from Dior DIO and Hedi Slimane from Celine.
Demna, who goes by one name, is a designer with a strong vision and a successful trackrecord as creative diroctor at Balenciaga, where he joined in 2015. Kering’s decision also suggests a departure from its prior strategy to play it safe with Gucci—de Sarno’s collections were more understated and elegant, but without a strong creative vision. Historically, Gucci performs best under a strong creative vision, rather than by following trends. These past visions—Tom Ford’s and Alessandro Michele’s—were also quite different from each other, suggesting there could be room for success for Demna’s vision.
However, with shares down 10%, markets appear worried about Demna’s ability to adapt sufficiently from what he did at Balenciaga, which arguably has much more niche appeal than Gucci, and is a much smaller brand. There are also some concerns about the creative void at Balenciaga (part of the Other division of Kering, accounting for 19% of revenue in 2024). That said, any appointment would have come with a high degree of uncertainty at this juncture, and we believe the overall risks for this stock are skewed to the upside.
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