No-moat Ocado reported consolidated results for the 52-week period ended Dec. 1, reaching £3.156 billion in revenue, representing 14% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA reached £153 million, ahead of company compiled consensus.
However, despite solid operating results, the stock plunged 17% at market opening on Feb. 27 due to a slower-than-expected growth pace for automated warehouses under its technology solutions division.
Ocado still expects to open at least seven new customer fulfilment centers, or CFCs, in the next three years and projects the division to contribute around 10% revenue growth in fiscal 2025.
With our long-term estimates unchanged, we maintain our fair value estimate of GBX 920. Ocado’s retail business, now a joint venture with Marks and Spencer, reported strong results last month, with 14% year-over-year revenue growth.
However, the spotlight was on the technology solutions and logistics divisions. Technology solutions delivered 18% revenue growth in fiscal 2024, but Ocado expects a more modest 10% in 2025.
The slower 2025 growth is affected by only five new modules going live for automated grocery operations and one CFC opening.
Logistics operations are expected to maintain mid- to high-single-digit revenue growth, consistent with the prior year.
Management expects underlying cash outflow of around £200 million in fiscal 2025, positioning the company on track to turn cash positive in 2026.
Ocado also significantly reduced its cash outflow to £224 million in fiscal 2024 from £473 million in fiscal 2023, benefiting from EBITDA improvement and a shift to a less capital intensive research and development cycle.
Key Morningstar Metrics For Ocado Stock
- Fair Value Estimate: GBX 920
- Economic Moat: None
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★★★
- Forward Dividend Yield: None
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High
Ocado Group Stock vs. Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
Source: Morningstar Direct. Latest price as of 3:22 PM GMT. Data as of Feb. 27, 2025.
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