US CPI Higher Than Expected in January

Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% on the month before, higher than forecasts.

Lauren Solberg 12 February, 2025 | 2:55PM
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Collage illustration of a basket filled with groceries, featuring a dollar icon and a magnifying glass.

Global stock markets reacted negatively to the latest US inflation data, which came in above forecasts. European equity indexes turned negative after the data release, while US markets opened lower.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 3.0% in January from year-ago levels, an uptick from December’s 2.9% rate. Year-over-year core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy costs) rose 3.3%, above the December rate of 3.2%.

The CPI increased 0.5% month over month in January after rising 0.4% in December. Core CPI also rose 0.4%, below the December increase of 0.2%.

Economists expected consumer prices to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in January, and for the annual inflation rate to rise to 2.9%, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. Core inflation was forecast to rise 0.3%, keeping the annual rate steady at 3.2%.

Headline CPI Versus Core CPI

January CPI Report Key Stats

  • CPI increased 0.5% for the month after rising 0.4% in December.
  • Core CPI climbed 0.4% after rising by 0.2% in December.
  • CPI increased 3.0% year over year after an uptick of 2.9% the prior month.
  • Core CPI rose 3.3% from year-ago levels after rising by 3.2% in December.

Headline CPI and Core CPI Since January 2024


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Lauren Solberg  is a data journalist at Morningstar

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