FTSE 100 bank NatWest is expected to release full-year earnings on Feb.14. Here’s what Morningstar expects.
NatWest NWG is poised for a strong fourth quarter, supported by a robust structural hedge driving net interest income.
While UK banks are projected to see improved net interest margins through 2025, investors must weigh these positives against concerns like weaker economic growth and potential stagflation.
Competition in the UK banking sector remains fierce—Santander UK reported mid-single-digit declines in loan and deposit volumes—but NatWest’s strong franchise may have enabled it to capture market share.
Key Morningstar Metrics for NatWest
- Morningstar Rating: ★★
- Fair Value Estimate: GBX 360.00
- Economic Moat: None
NatWest Business Strategy and Outlook
Once the biggest bank in the world, NatWest Group is now a much smaller and mostly UK-focused bank with a good retail and commercial banking franchise. The bank also stands on a more solid footing than it has ever had during the last decade. The largest litigation and conduct issues—such as the residential mortgage-backed securities case in the US and the redress for mis-sold payment protection insurance, which had been significant headwinds to performance over the recent past—have come to a close.
NatWest has benefited from the rising interest rate environment. While mortgage margins remain under pressure due to the competitive nature of the UK mortgage market, higher deposit spreads have been a boon for NatWest. However, greater competition on deposits and a shift from current accounts into savings should offset some of the gains NatWest booked over the last two years.
With the base rate likely to be cut further in 2025, pressure on the net interest margin could intensify despite the hedging portfolio still forming a tailwind. All that said, we anticipate margins to remain well above levels seen during the close to zero percentage point base rate years of the recent past.
NatWest Stock Price Versus Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
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