Key Morningstar Metrics for ASML Holding
- Fair Value Estimate: EUR 850
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
What We Thought of ASML Holding’s Earnings
ASML Holding ASML exceeded all expectations in its fourth-quarter results, with shares surging 11% intraday. New orders came in strongly at EUR 7.1 billion—in a context where EUR 4 billion would have been a success. Despite this strength, management remained cautious and maintained its EUR 30 billion-EUR 35 billion revenue guidance for 2025. Although this can look conservative at first glance, it’s based on the weakness shown by Intel INTC and Samsung, which have likely pushed some orders to 2026, as they still have challenges in ramping up production of leading-edge nodes. We’ve raised our 2025 revenue estimate to EUR 34.2 billion from EUR 32.5 billion, but maintain our fair value estimate, as our long-term forecasts remain largely unchanged. Shares still offer 20% upside.
Taiwan’s contribution to 2024 total system sales has been low at only 11% compared with a 31% average from 2015-24. We see room for incremental Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing TSM orders to show up in ASML’s books during 2025. This is supported by Taiwan Semiconductor’s strong capital expenditure guidance of EUR 36.5 billion-EUR 40.5 billion, a 34% year-on-year increase at the midpoint. The firm keeps ramping up production of its 2nm process node at the Hsinchu and Kaohsiung fabs, which will require more tooling. Additional orders in the coming quarters should increase visibility into 2026, but the outlook still faces uncertainty.
These tailwinds could be offset by weaker capex trends from Intel and Samsung. Any updates on their spending plans will provide further clarity on fab equipment demand over the next 12-18 months. According to the South Korean newspaper Software Engineering Daily, Samsung is slashing its 2025 foundry capex by 50% to EUR 3.37 billion. Intel and Samsung report earnings on Jan. 30 and 31, respectively. On the memory front, Micron Technology MU will increase capex to EUR 13.6 billion in 2025 from EUR 7.8 billion in 2024, while SK Hynix 000660 signaled flat spending.
ASML Holding Stock vs. Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
Source: Morningstar Direct. Latest price as of 12:00 PM CET.
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.