Ollie Smith: Now, the return of Donald Trump to the White House has begged not a few questions. Among them: will tariffs be the economic wild card staunching economic growth in Europe in 2025? And elsewhere, what on earth will happen to Greenland? But here’s a more theoretical question for investors watching: what would a Trump ETF look like? Here to answer that and more is Morningstar’s Kenneth Lamont from our manager research team. Ken, thanks so much for your time. There isn’t currently a Trump ETF, is there?
Kenneth Lamont: Not currently, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of one.
Smith: What would one look like if there was?
Lamont: Well, it’s a great question. And one way we could answer that is by looking at the flows in and out of ETFs over what we could say as a tumultuous first week of Trump’s presidency. I mean, really look at the executive orders he signed and sort of pieced together what sort of positioning that sort of fund might take.
So a good place to start would be, it would have some sort of Bitcoin exposure. The fund with the highest net inflows or the ETC with the highest net inflows last week was the largest ETC fund in the US. And this really shouldn’t come as a surprise. Trump has been verbally very supportive of crypto in general. Of course, you’ve got the Melania and the Trump meme coins. So that would certainly be a portion of it. I would argue de-globalization and potentially re-industrialization or on-shoring type bets. There is actually one or two of these ETFs in the US, so not-currently in Europe, sort of targeting that theme, but that would definitely be a sort of positioning as well and potentially the traditional manufacturing, et cetera. And finally, the support of the traditional big oil, the energy emergency, et cetera. And again, we saw that coming through in the flows last week. We saw MLP ETCs, which are considered to be almost sort of the most pure play on certain parts of the traditional hydrocarbon value chain, really rewarded last week as well. So you’d probably see at least those three positionings within the fund.
Smith: Sure. And dare I mention the name Elon Musk, because what’s in this theoretical ETF is as important as what’s not in it. And it wouldn’t be renewables, would it? And that’s an area where Mr. Musk and Mr. Trump really seem to disagree, isn’t it?
Lamont: It is, yes. If you’re building an ETF that was long only, we’ve sort of touched on what that might look like. But equally, if it was a long-short portfolio, let’s say, you would actually be going short certain sectors and areas as well. And you mentioned Elon Musk, well Trump has said he will sort of step away from subsidizing electric vehicles and sort of batteries, which clearly is not going to be favorable for that part of the investment universe. But generally more broadly, stepping away from the sort of Paris Accord doesn’t really look great for renewables more broadly speaking. So if you could go short, perhaps the portfolio would be going short on that as well.
Smith: Thanks so much, Kenneth. For more on funds, investment trusts and ETFs, check out Morningstar.co.uk, of course. Until next time, my thanks to Kenneth. I’ve been Ollie Smith from Morningstar.
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.