Key Morningstar Metrics for Novo Nordisk
• Fair Value Estimate: $86.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
Novo Nordisk’s NVO amycretin, which targets GLP-1 and amylin in one molecule, generated 24% placebo-adjusted weight loss in a phase 1b/2a study in patients with obesity or overweight after 36 weeks, among patients who escalated to the highest 20mg subcutaneous weekly dose.
Why it matters: Novo has struggled to stay competitive with Eli Lilly LLY in developing the next generation of obesity drugs that could improve on Lilly’s Zepbound, with disappointing data for phase 2 drug monlunabant in September and phase 3 GLP-1 and amylin combination cagrisema in December.
• Novo and Lilly are fighting for share in the global GLP-1 market, which surpassed $50 billion in 2024 and is likely to reach $200 billion by 2031 as supply and insurance coverage improve and more patients are treated globally, even as prices come down.
• The amycretin data looks stronger than the 19% weight loss at 36 weeks generated for Lilly’s next-generation drug retatrutide in phase 2 (phase 3 data is expected in 2026) and 20.4% cagrisema weight loss in a much longer 68-week trial.
The bottom line: We’re maintaining our fair value estimate of $86 per share for Novo, and think the stock looks slightly overvalued after this announcement. We think the data fits our thesis that Novo’s innovation will allow it to maintain a wide moat, but the market looks competitive.
• We expect Novo to begin pivotal studies for subcu amycretin this year, which we think implies a data release in 2027 and potential approval in 2028. While this could mean additional share loss to Lilly or other novel competitors in the meantime, we think it supports Novo’s long-term growth.
• We’re watching for more clarity on the tolerability profile for subcu amycretin, as well as information of manufacturing flexibility for scaling to a higher dose (20 mg versus 2.4 mg for Wegovy) of this more complex peptide.
Novo Nordisk Stock vs. Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
Data as of Jan 26, 2025. Source: Morningstar Direct.
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