Over the past week, there has been a lot of uncertainty around TikTok’s future in the United States. The Supreme Court upheld a ban on the app, only for a freshly inaugurated President Trump to issue an executive order granting parent company ByteDance a 75-day extension to sell 50% of TikTok to US investors or face a ban.
Why it matters: TikTok is an incredibly popular social media platform, with more than 170 million users in the US. TikTok has a respectable 15% market share of US social media ad spending, which is smaller than Meta Platforms’ META 70% but larger than peers like Snap SNAP, Reddit RDDT, and Pinterest PINS.
- We believe Meta’s Reels and YouTube’s Shorts are the most obvious beneficiaries of any user or advertiser shift away from TikTok. Both products gained material user engagement following the TikTok ban in India in 2020, and we foresee a similar trend if TikTok is banned in the US.
- Short-form video is a fast-growing and popular medium, with its proliferation particularly strong among younger demographics. Advertisers targeting this medium may be put off by the uncertainty around TikTok’s future and divert their dollars to other short-form video products.
The bottom line: We are raising our fair value estimate for Meta to $590 per share from $560 as we incorporate slightly stronger US advertising revenue for 2025, primarily due to advertisers looking to spread some of their TikTok ad budgets elsewhere.
- Our base case incorporates TikTok remaining operational in the US, likely through a 50% sale to a US-based company.
- If ByteDance does not come to an agreement regarding TikTok’s future in the next 75 days, resulting in a ban in the US, we’d expect a more material flow of ad dollars and users toward Meta and an additional 20% fair value increase.
Coming up: Meta reports its fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 29. We expect management to provide commentary on changes in ad demand stemming from uncertainty around TikTok’s future in the US.
Meta Platforms Stock vs. Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
Source: Morningstar Direct. Latest price as of 5:00 PM ET.
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.