Porsche Fair Value Lowered, Shares Still Undervalued

Weak business in China and governance concerns weigh on our fair value estimate.

Rella Suskin 21 January, 2025 | 10:57AM
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A close-up picture of a Porsche's steering wheel and the dashboard.

Following a re-examination, we maintain our narrow moat valuation for Porsche and lower our fair value estimate to €82 per share from €94.

Porsche is uniquely positioned as a luxury car manufacturer with economies of scale. The company sells more than ten times the volume of most luxury car brands annually, and it remains desirable to own a Porsche. With around 65% of volume sold at over €100,000 per vehicle, a far greater proportion than other premium car manufacturers, the company is able to achieve excellent margins.

Porsche P911

Analyst: Rella Suskin, CFA


We believe that Porsche’s strategy of focusing more on value than volume is necessary to maintaining a narrow moat.

Weak Business in China Remains a Burden

After volume growth of 25% over the last five years, volume growth will no longer be a key sales driver. The almost 40% loss of volume in China is an important factor. We estimate that customization has contributed around 0.5% to average unit sales growth in recent years and may continue to do so in the medium term, as market penetration is relatively lower than for other companies.

In addition, the company’s shift away from base models will have a significant effect on the product mix, as the turbo or sports versions are around twice as expensive as the base models. We forecast sales growth of 5% per year on average, with a recovery in gross margins driving margin expansion in the medium term.

Although Porsche has scaled back its ambitions in the transition to electric vehicles and therefore all powertrain platforms will have to be maintained for longer, the company insists that capital intensity will be reduced compared to the high levels of recent years by further expanding its relationship with Volkswagen.

We view this as a temporary solution in a highly competitive market and therefore only see a short period of lower capital intensity.

Governance Concerns at Porsche Linked to Volkswagen’s Influence

We draw attention to several governance concerns regarding Porsche in connection with its parent company Volkswagen. Porsche SE (investment company of the Porsche/Piëch family) and Volkswagen hold 100% of the company’s share capital - in most cases 100% of the voting rights. We do not believe it is in the interest of minority shareholders for Porsche to share CEO Oliver Blume with Volkswagen, especially given the turbulent times the automotive industry is going through.

We believe Porsche’s return on invested capital could also benefit from its relationship with Volkswagen, as it piggybacks on Volkswagen’s capitalized software, R&D and production capacity. Nevertheless, we calculate a positive ROIC-weighted average cost of capital spread after estimated adjustments.

Porsche Remains Undervalued After Change in FVE

Source: Morningstar Direct. Latest price as of 10:30.


The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.

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Rella Suskin  is an equity analyst at Morningstar.

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