Cyclical Stocks Outperform
Equity prices rose sharply last week, with the Morningstar US Market Index up 3.1%. The quarterly earnings season got off to a roaring start while placid inflation data calmed economic concerns. In contrast to last year’s dominant trend, the market was led higher by traditionally cyclical companies such as basic materials (up 6.3%), energy (up 6.3%) and financial services (up 6.4%) while communication services (up 1.4%) and healthcare (up 0.4%) stocks lagged. Small companies (up 4.6%) rose faster than large (up 2.7%) and value (up 4.2%) eclipsed growth (up 0.7%).
Strong Results from Banks
The sharp rise in prices of financial services companies reflects surprisingly strong results from this sector which is traditionally in the vanguard of the reporting season. Index heavyweights such as JPMorgan JPM, Bank of America BAC, Well Fargo WFC, and Goldman Sachs GS all delivered profits above expectations and drove an increase in the 2024 profit growth forecast of large US companies from 11.9% to 12.5%, according to FactSet. Despite these results, financial services stocks now appear almost 14% overvalued, indicating that returns are likely to be lower than average in future.
Energy Stocks Are Lagging
In contrast, energy companies have experienced the steepest downgrades in earnings estimates since the end of last year and are expected to have the sharpest decline in 2024 earnings (according to FactSet) of any sector. Yet these companies also benefited from positive sentiment among investors last week and are now priced at a small discount to our analysts’ estimate to fair value having risen sharply since the start of the year. You can keep track of the evolving earnings season using this calendar and read Morningstar’s take on the results as they are published here.
Small-Caps Stocks Are Undervalued
While we have witnessed a reversal in market leadership since the start of the year, valuation gaps remain large as shown by the relative price to fair value for the nine components of the Morningstar Style Box: small-cap value stocks are screening as 11.4% undervalued, while large-cap growth stocks are 16.4% overvalued. So there remain significant opportunities to improve the expected return of a portfolio for investors willing to take a valuation-driven approach.
Those pursuing this strategy will require patience as near-term market trends are unpredictable and can continue long after they appear irrational. Most investors lack such patience, as indicated by Morningstar’s annual Mind the Gap study, and so are unable to access these returns. It is therefore vital to consider whether you possess this patience before embarking on this path. For those that struggle with patience, Morningstar behavioral scientists Ryan Murphy and Samantha Lamas provide some tips in this article from last summer.
How Investors Can Navigate Politics
In a week shortened to commemorate Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday there is little economic news of note, and the attention of investors is more likely to be on Washington than Wall Street. Among the topics on investors’ minds as Trump enters the White House the impact of the proposed tariffs is likely to be at the top of the list. One of the challenges of analyzing the economic consequence of political decisions is that commentators and investors are often aligned to one side of the debate. This can lead to overconfident forecasts.
But the future is uncertain and so our expectations should reflect a range of potential outcomes. Preston Caldwell, Morningstar’s senior US economist, has addressed this by providing a probability weighted assessment of the proposed tariffs. Preston has assigned a low probability of Trump imposing his planned 10% tariff on all US imports, indicating that the drag on the economy may far smaller than that feared by those who believe it will be fully implemented. You can read more about the thinking behind Preston’s assessment here.
A Guide to the New Trump Administration
More broadly, Morningstar’s policy research team have written An Investor’s Guide to the Next Trump Administration covering five areas that investors need to consider including cryptocurrency, ESG and private markets.
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.