We maintain our 920p per share fair value estimate for no-moat Ocado Retail OCDO after the firm’s trading statement for the 13 weeks to Dec. 1, 2024 was in line with our expectations.
Even with shares up nearly 10% to 296p following the announcement, the stock continues to trade in 5-star territory.
We continue to hold our view that Ocado Retail is well-positioned to capture share as online grocery penetration increases.
Key Morningstar Metrics For Ocado OCDO
• Fair Value Estimate: GBX 920.00
• Economic Moat: None
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★★
• Forward Dividend Yield: None
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High
Retail revenue increased 17.5% to £715.8 million in the period, driven by positive volume momentum, which was up 17%.
Average orders per week and active customers rose 16.9% and 12.1%, respectively, indicating that more customers are turning to Ocado more frequently thanks to improved offerings and service.
We were also pleased to see metrics including average basket value, average selling price, and average basket size increase in the period, signaling profitable expansion for the firm.
Ocado Stock Price Versus Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
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